Trader consensus favors the CDU with 54.5% implied probability to emerge as the strongest party in Berlin's September 20 state election to the Abgeordnetenhaus, reflecting its stable polling lead around 22% in the latest February INSA and Civey surveys. Opposition parties remain fragmented, with Linke, AfD, SPD, and Grüne hovering at 14-17%, unable to close the gap amid proportional representation dynamics. Incumbent CDU Governing Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from the current black-red coalition's projected lack of majority, while national momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU following recent state wins sustains optimism. No major shifts in the past 30 days, though Berlin's January power outage drew criticism without altering Sonntagsfrage trends; campaign intensification could influence coalition negotiations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim
Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim
CDU 54%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 14%
Os Verdes 10.3%
$1,558,806 Vol.
$1,558,806 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
54%
AfD
14%
Linke
14%
Os Verdes
10%
SPD
10%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 54%
AfD 14.0%
Linke 14%
Os Verdes 10.3%
$1,558,806 Vol.
$1,558,806 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,607 Vol.
54%
AfD
$1,211,329 Vol.
14%
Linke
$7,850 Vol.
14%
Os Verdes
$22,277 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,327 Vol.
10%
BSW
$14,800 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,067 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,827 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 54.5% implied probability to emerge as the strongest party in Berlin's September 20 state election to the Abgeordnetenhaus, reflecting its stable polling lead around 22% in the latest February INSA and Civey surveys. Opposition parties remain fragmented, with Linke, AfD, SPD, and Grüne hovering at 14-17%, unable to close the gap amid proportional representation dynamics. Incumbent CDU Governing Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from the current black-red coalition's projected lack of majority, while national momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU following recent state wins sustains optimism. No major shifts in the past 30 days, though Berlin's January power outage drew criticism without altering Sonntagsfrage trends; campaign intensification could influence coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,558,806Data de Término
Sep 20, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 54.5% implied probability to emerge as the strongest party in Berlin's September 20 state election to the Abgeordnetenhaus, reflecting its stable polling lead around 22% in the latest February INSA and Civey surveys. Opposition parties remain fragmented, with Linke, AfD, SPD, and Grüne hovering at 14-17%, unable to close the gap amid proportional representation dynamics. Incumbent CDU Governing Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from the current black-red coalition's projected lack of majority, while national momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU following recent state wins sustains optimism. No major shifts in the past 30 days, though Berlin's January power outage drew criticism without altering Sonntagsfrage trends; campaign intensification could influence coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,558,806Data de Término
Sep 20, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with 54.5% implied probability to emerge as the strongest party in Berlin's September 20 state election to the Abgeordnetenhaus, reflecting its stable polling lead around 22% in the latest February INSA and Civey surveys. Opposition parties remain fragmented, with Linke, AfD, SPD, and Grüne hovering at 14-17%, unable to close the gap amid proportional representation dynamics. Incumbent CDU Governing Mayor Kai Wegner benefits from the current black-red coalition's projected lack of majority, while national momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU following recent state wins sustains optimism. No major shifts in the past 30 days, though Berlin's January power outage drew criticism without altering Sonntagsfrage trends; campaign intensification could influence coalition negotiations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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