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Política·Primárias

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Política·Primárias

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Jerry Carl 41%

James Dees 41%

Rhett Marques 40%

Joshua McKee 24%

Polymarket
NEW

$33,281 Vol.

Jerry Carl 41%

James Dees 41%

Rhett Marques 40%

Joshua McKee 24%

Polymarket
NEW

$33,281 Vol.

Jerry Carl

$0 Vol.

41%

James Dees

$0 Vol.

41%

Rhett Marques

$0 Vol.

40%

Joshua McKee

$0 Vol.

24%

James Richardson

$5,174 Vol.

18%

Austin Sidwell

$13,353 Vol.

14%

John Mills

$14,754 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the AL-01 Republican primary reflects a fragmented field with incumbent Jerry Carl tied at 40% alongside challengers James Dees and Rhett Marques at 39.5–40%, driven by recent internal polling averages showing no candidate above 35% support amid split GOP voter bases in Mobile County and the eastern panhandle. Carl's incumbency and committee assignments offer stability, but Dees' strong fundraising—raising over $500K in Q4 2023—and Marques' local business endorsements have fueled momentum since January campaign forums. Absent a late Trump endorsement or decisive ad spend shift, early voting trends starting February 26 could tip the balance before the March 5 primary, underscoring the tight path-to-victory for all top contenders.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$33,281
Data de Término
May 19, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the AL-01 Republican primary reflects a fragmented field with incumbent Jerry Carl tied at 40% alongside challengers James Dees and Rhett Marques at 39.5–40%, driven by recent internal polling averages showing no candidate above 35% support amid split GOP voter bases in Mobile County and the eastern panhandle. Carl's incumbency and committee assignments offer stability, but Dees' strong fundraising—raising over $500K in Q4 2023—and Marques' local business endorsements have fueled momentum since January campaign forums. Absent a late Trump endorsement or decisive ad spend shift, early voting trends starting February 26 could tip the balance before the March 5 primary, underscoring the tight path-to-victory for all top contenders.

Trader consensus in the AL-01 Republican primary reflects a fragmented field with incumbent Jerry Carl tied at 40% alongside challengers James Dees and Rhett Marques at 39.5–40%, driven by recent internal polling averages showing no candidate above 35% support amid split GOP voter bases in Mobile County and the eastern panhandle. Carl's incumbency and committee assignments offer stability, but Dees' strong fundraising—raising over $500K in Q4 2023—and Marques' local business endorsements have fueled momentum since January campaign forums. Absent a late Trump endorsement or decisive ad spend shift, early voting trends starting February 26 could tip the balance before the March 5 primary, underscoring the tight path-to-victory for all top contenders.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jerry Carl" at 41%, followed by "James Dees" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $33.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jerry Carl" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Dees" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.