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Política·Primárias

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Política·Primárias

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

John Mills 35%

Jerry Carl 25%

James Dees 25%

Rhett Marques 25%

Polymarket
NEW

$33,291 Vol.

John Mills 35%

Jerry Carl 25%

James Dees 25%

Rhett Marques 25%

Polymarket
NEW

$33,291 Vol.

John Mills

$14,754 Vol.

35%

Jerry Carl

$0 Vol.

25%

James Dees

$0 Vol.

25%

Rhett Marques

$0 Vol.

25%

Joshua McKee

$0 Vol.

25%

James Richardson

$5,184 Vol.

19%

Austin Sidwell

$13,353 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for May 19, 2026—with a potential June 16 runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%—trader consensus on Polymarket favors retired Navy pilot John Mills at 35% implied probability amid a fragmented eight-candidate field, ahead of James Richardson at 25.5% and a cluster around 17.5% for James Dees, Rhett Marques, and Joshua McKee. The March 18 Alabama Poll showed former Rep. Jerry Carl leading at 28% over state Rep. Marques at 19%, with 53% other or undecided, highlighting vote-splitting dynamics keeping odds tight despite Carl's earlier dominance eroding. Recent narrowing of Carl's lead reflects Marques' fundraising edge and Sen. Katie Britt endorsement, while Mills draws niche conservative support from figures like Mike Lindell; new polls, endorsements, or debates could consolidate frontrunners before early voting.

In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for May 19, 2026—with a potential June 16 runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%—trader consensus on Polymarket favors retired Navy pilot John Mills at 35% implied probability amid a fragmented eight-candidate field, ahead of James Richardson at 25.5% and a cluster around 17.5% for James Dees, Rhett Marques, and Joshua McKee. The March 18 Alabama Poll showed former Rep. Jerry Carl leading at 28% over state Rep. Marques at 19%, with 53% other or undecided, highlighting vote-splitting dynamics keeping odds tight despite Carl's earlier dominance eroding. Recent narrowing of Carl's lead reflects Marques' fundraising edge and Sen. Katie Britt endorsement, while Mills draws niche conservative support from figures like Mike Lindell; new polls, endorsements, or debates could consolidate frontrunners before early voting.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for May 19, 2026—with a potential June 16 runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%—trader consensus on Polymarket favors retired Navy pilot John Mills at 35% implied probability amid a fragmented eight-candidate field, ahead of James Richardson at 25.5% and a cluster around 17.5% for James Dees, Rhett Marques, and Joshua McKee. The March 18 Alabama Poll showed former Rep. Jerry Carl leading at 28% over state Rep. Marques at 19%, with 53% other or undecided, highlighting vote-splitting dynamics keeping odds tight despite Carl's earlier dominance eroding. Recent narrowing of Carl's lead reflects Marques' fundraising edge and Sen. Katie Britt endorsement, while Mills draws niche conservative support from figures like Mike Lindell; new polls, endorsements, or debates could consolidate frontrunners before early voting.

In Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary set for May 19, 2026—with a potential June 16 runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%—trader consensus on Polymarket favors retired Navy pilot John Mills at 35% implied probability amid a fragmented eight-candidate field, ahead of James Richardson at 25.5% and a cluster around 17.5% for James Dees, Rhett Marques, and Joshua McKee. The March 18 Alabama Poll showed former Rep. Jerry Carl leading at 28% over state Rep. Marques at 19%, with 53% other or undecided, highlighting vote-splitting dynamics keeping odds tight despite Carl's earlier dominance eroding. Recent narrowing of Carl's lead reflects Marques' fundraising edge and Sen. Katie Britt endorsement, while Mills draws niche conservative support from figures like Mike Lindell; new polls, endorsements, or debates could consolidate frontrunners before early voting.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Mills" at 35%, followed by "Jerry Carl" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $33.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "John Mills" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jerry Carl" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.