Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout clusters around 115-125 million votes, mirroring historical benchmarks like 111 million in 2022 and 118 million in 2018, amid a competitive landscape following the 2024 Republican sweep. Early primaries in Texas and North Carolina last month drew low overall participation—10-19% of registered voters—signaling subdued enthusiasm compared to presidential cycles, though Democrats posted relative turnout gains and flips in recent state legislative specials. This keeps probabilities tightly matched across bins, as uncertainty lingers over generic ballot ties, battleground mobilization, and economic trends. Upcoming fundraising deadlines, summer polling surges, or registration drives in swing states could tip sentiment toward higher or lower totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado115-120 milhões 19%
120-125 milhões 18%
110-115 milhões 13%
125-130 milhões 12%
<85 milhões
6%
85-90 milhões
6%
90-95 milhões
3%
95-100 milhões
5%
100-105 milhões
6%
105-110 milhões
10%
110-115 milhões
13%
115-120 milhões
19%
120-125 milhões
18%
125-130 milhões
12%
130 milhões+
9%
115-120 milhões 19%
120-125 milhões 18%
110-115 milhões 13%
125-130 milhões 12%
<85 milhões
6%
85-90 milhões
6%
90-95 milhões
3%
95-100 milhões
5%
100-105 milhões
6%
105-110 milhões
10%
110-115 milhões
13%
115-120 milhões
19%
120-125 milhões
18%
125-130 milhões
12%
130 milhões+
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout clusters around 115-125 million votes, mirroring historical benchmarks like 111 million in 2022 and 118 million in 2018, amid a competitive landscape following the 2024 Republican sweep. Early primaries in Texas and North Carolina last month drew low overall participation—10-19% of registered voters—signaling subdued enthusiasm compared to presidential cycles, though Democrats posted relative turnout gains and flips in recent state legislative specials. This keeps probabilities tightly matched across bins, as uncertainty lingers over generic ballot ties, battleground mobilization, and economic trends. Upcoming fundraising deadlines, summer polling surges, or registration drives in swing states could tip sentiment toward higher or lower totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions