Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
AI Technology·Politics

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

14%

$34.5K Vol.

$11.5K Liq.

3

Ends in about 2 months

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
AI Technology·SpaceX

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

88%

SpaceX

$46.7K Vol.

$2.2K Liq.

1

Ends in almost 2 years

IPOs before 2027?
AI Technology·Business

IPOs before 2027?

87%

Cerebras

$4M Vol.

$142K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
AI Technology·AI

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

18%

$28.9K Vol.

$9.2K Liq.

6

Ends in 10 months

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
AI Technology·Politics

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

40%

$63.9K Vol.

$5.2K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
AI Technology·Politics

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

34%

$7.8K Vol.

$3.2K Liq.

7

Ends in 10 months

AI bubble burst by...?
AI Technology·Business

AI bubble burst by...?

18%

December 31, 2026

$2M Vol.

$26.5K Liq.

67

Ends in 10 months

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
AI Technology·Business

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

15%

$0 Vol.

$4.4K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15?
AI Technology·Sam Altman

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15?

3%

$7.1K Vol.

$1.3K Liq.

Ends in about 11 hours

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
AI Technology·Sam Altman

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

32%

December 31, 2026

$178K Vol.

$10.3K Liq.

28

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
AI Technology·AI

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

32%

Anthropic

$8.7K Vol.

$18.9K Liq.

2

Ends in 10 months

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
AI Technology·AI

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

35%

$0 Vol.

$2.1K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
AI Technology·Business

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

19%

$61.1K Vol.

$10.9K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI Technology·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

28%

xAI

$1M Vol.

$43.5K Liq.

22

Ends in 4 months

ChatGPT Outage by March 15?
AI Technology·AI

ChatGPT Outage by March 15?

9%

$38.1K Vol.

$4.7K Liq.

Ends in about 11 hours

Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
AI Technology·AI

Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

87%

OpenAI

$658K Vol.

$133K Liq.

8

Ends in 16 days

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
AI Technology·Politics

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

6%

$97.5K Vol.

$5.7K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
AI Technology·AI

Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

77%

Anthropic

$379K Vol.

$60.0K Liq.

Ends in 16 days

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?
AI Technology·Sports

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?

12%

$3.1K Vol.

$922 Liq.

1

Ends in 10 months

Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score by December 31?
AI Technology·AI

Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score by December 31?

68%

↑ 1550

$62.5K Vol.

$21.6K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like AI Technology.

Polymarket currently hosts 119 active markets for AI Technology that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $8.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “IPOs before 2027?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “IPOs before 2027?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to Once Upon a Farm. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on AI Technology predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.