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Middle East predictions & odds

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

22%

$25M Vol.

$3M today

$692K Liq.

3

Ends in 8 months

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

74%

June 30

$14M Vol.

$1M today

$332K Liq.

332

Ends in about 2 months

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

5%

$38M Vol.

$1M today

$783K Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

2%

$16M Vol.

$488K today

$846K Liq.

1

Ends in 24 days

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

41%

December 31

$6M Vol.

$345K today

$206K Liq.

104

Ends in 8 months

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

17%

$17M Vol.

$198K today

$339K Liq.

6

Ends in 8 months

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

42%

Naftali Bennett

$7M Vol.

$178K today

$681K Liq.

231

Ends in 8 months

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

11%

December 31

$17M Vol.

$134K today

$480K Liq.

369

Ends in about 2 months

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

17%

$280K Vol.

$129K today

$33.2K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

41%

$2M Vol.

$122K today

$86.0K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

28%

$271K Vol.

$96.0K today

$45.7K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Iran leader end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

67%

Mojtaba Khamenei

$7M Vol.

$77.4K today

$2M Liq.

100

Ends in 8 months

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

3%

$1M Vol.

$71.6K today

$70.6K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

44%

December 31

$120M Vol.

$51.8K today

$355K Liq.

33

Ends in 8 months

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

64%

$998K Vol.

$126K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

33%

$770K Vol.

$33.1K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

9%

$713K Vol.

$46.9K Liq.

23

Ends in about 2 months

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

6%

December 31

$7M Vol.

$64.6K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

13%

December 31, 2026

$793K Vol.

$43.6K Liq.

9

Ends in 8 months

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

73%

$59.9K Vol.

$11.5K Liq.

6

Ends in 24 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Middle East.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Middle East that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $280.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Netanyahu out by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Netanyahu out by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 44% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Middle East predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.