The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 has anchored trader expectations for another pause at the June 10 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting broad consensus around steady policy amid temporary energy-driven inflation and a soft labor market. Recent CPI data showed headline inflation rising to 2.4% in March due to gasoline prices linked to Middle East developments, yet core measures remain near 2% with longer-term expectations anchored, while unemployment lingers in the 6.5–7% range and GDP growth projections sit at 1.2% for 2026. Traders are pricing in the Bank’s stated willingness to look through near-term volatility without broader pass-through, consistent with its post-April guidance. A sustained acceleration in underlying inflation or sharper downside surprises in employment data could still shift the odds toward a cut.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоBank of Canada decision in June?
No change 97.4%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
Increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$29,817 Объем
$29,817 Объем
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
Increase
1%
No change 97.4%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
Increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$29,817 Объем
$29,817 Объем
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
Increase
1%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 has anchored trader expectations for another pause at the June 10 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting broad consensus around steady policy amid temporary energy-driven inflation and a soft labor market. Recent CPI data showed headline inflation rising to 2.4% in March due to gasoline prices linked to Middle East developments, yet core measures remain near 2% with longer-term expectations anchored, while unemployment lingers in the 6.5–7% range and GDP growth projections sit at 1.2% for 2026. Traders are pricing in the Bank’s stated willingness to look through near-term volatility without broader pass-through, consistent with its post-April guidance. A sustained acceleration in underlying inflation or sharper downside surprises in employment data could still shift the odds toward a cut.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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