Bank of Canada policymakers are widely expected to hold the overnight target rate steady at 2.25% at today’s June 10 decision, reflecting the market-implied near-certainty of no change. Weak first-quarter GDP contraction pushed the economy into technical recession, while growth remains subdued amid U.S. tariff uncertainty and softer labor conditions. Headline CPI has risen to around 2.4% on elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, but core measures have held near the 2% target with limited pass-through to broader prices. This backdrop supports the current policy stance, though a sharper inflation acceleration or unexpected growth rebound could prompt a reassessment at future meetings.