Ongoing US-Iran military conflict since February 2026, including recent American strikes on June 11 that threatened a fragile April ceasefire, has kept diplomatic normalization off the table. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan focus on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues rather than restoring full bilateral ties. Switzerland's gradual embassy reopening in Tehran serves only as a protecting power for limited US interests. With half the year elapsed amid persistent tensions and no public signals of embassy plans from either government, traders assign an 87% probability to no US embassy reopening in Iran during 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОткроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Да
$146,640 Объем
$146,640 Объем
Да
$146,640 Объем
$146,640 Объем
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military conflict since February 2026, including recent American strikes on June 11 that threatened a fragile April ceasefire, has kept diplomatic normalization off the table. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan focus on ending hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues rather than restoring full bilateral ties. Switzerland's gradual embassy reopening in Tehran serves only as a protecting power for limited US interests. With half the year elapsed amid persistent tensions and no public signals of embassy plans from either government, traders assign an 87% probability to no US embassy reopening in Iran during 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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