Escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran's October missile barrages on Israel and subsequent Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have reinforced US support for Israel and hardened bilateral sanctions against Tehran, driving trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability against reopening the US embassy in Iran by 2026. The embassy has remained closed since the 1979 hostage crisis amid ongoing disputes over Iran's nuclear program—now enriching uranium to near-weapons grade per IAEA reports—its backing of proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis targeting US interests, and bipartisan US congressional measures designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization. No diplomatic breakthroughs or normalization signals have emerged in indirect Oman-mediated talks, with historical precedents of failed détente underscoring structural barriers to reversal before year's end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоОткроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Откроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Да
$29,601 Объем
$29,601 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$29,601 Объем
$29,601 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran's October missile barrages on Israel and subsequent Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have reinforced US support for Israel and hardened bilateral sanctions against Tehran, driving trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability against reopening the US embassy in Iran by 2026. The embassy has remained closed since the 1979 hostage crisis amid ongoing disputes over Iran's nuclear program—now enriching uranium to near-weapons grade per IAEA reports—its backing of proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis targeting US interests, and bipartisan US congressional measures designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization. No diplomatic breakthroughs or normalization signals have emerged in indirect Oman-mediated talks, with historical precedents of failed détente underscoring structural barriers to reversal before year's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Объем
$29,601Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran's October missile barrages on Israel and subsequent Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have reinforced US support for Israel and hardened bilateral sanctions against Tehran, driving trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability against reopening the US embassy in Iran by 2026. The embassy has remained closed since the 1979 hostage crisis amid ongoing disputes over Iran's nuclear program—now enriching uranium to near-weapons grade per IAEA reports—its backing of proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis targeting US interests, and bipartisan US congressional measures designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization. No diplomatic breakthroughs or normalization signals have emerged in indirect Oman-mediated talks, with historical precedents of failed détente underscoring structural barriers to reversal before year's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$29,601Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran's October missile barrages on Israel and subsequent Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, have reinforced US support for Israel and hardened bilateral sanctions against Tehran, driving trader consensus to an 84.5% implied probability against reopening the US embassy in Iran by 2026. The embassy has remained closed since the 1979 hostage crisis amid ongoing disputes over Iran's nuclear program—now enriching uranium to near-weapons grade per IAEA reports—its backing of proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis targeting US interests, and bipartisan US congressional measures designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization. No diplomatic breakthroughs or normalization signals have emerged in indirect Oman-mediated talks, with historical precedents of failed détente underscoring structural barriers to reversal before year's end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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