Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 44.5% implied probability of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, driven by Keir Starmer's determination to hold office amid Labour's commanding parliamentary majority and no general election required until 2029. Despite Starmer's net approval rating plunging to -48 and Reform UK leading national polls, his allies warn that a leadership coup could prompt opposition demands for a vote, stabilizing his position for now. Angela Rayner's 16.5% odds stem from her mid-March speeches branding government migration reforms "un-British" and urging policy shifts, reigniting speculation of an internal Labour challenge around the May 7 local elections, where heavy losses loom. Lower probabilities for Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, and others highlight limited positioning amid reshuffle rumors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНовый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году 45%
Анджела Рейнэр 17%
Уэс Стритинг 5%
Эд Милибэнд 3.5%
$4,284,666 Объем
$4,284,666 Объем
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году
45%
Анджела Рейнэр
17%
Уэс Стритинг
5%
Эд Милибэнд
4%
Руперт Лоу
3%
Энди Бёрнем
3%
Найджел Фараж
3%
Ал Карнс
1%
Иветт Купер
1%
Дэвид Лемми
1%
Шабана Махмуд
1%
Люси Пауэлл
1%
Кеми Баденох
1%
Рэйчел Ривз
<1%
Даррен Джонс
<1%
Роберт Дженрик
<1%
Джеймс Клеверли
<1%
Борис Джонсон
<1%
Эд Дейви
<1%
Бриджет Филипсон
<1%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году 45%
Анджела Рейнэр 17%
Уэс Стритинг 5%
Эд Милибэнд 3.5%
$4,284,666 Объем
$4,284,666 Объем
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году
45%
Анджела Рейнэр
17%
Уэс Стритинг
5%
Эд Милибэнд
4%
Руперт Лоу
3%
Энди Бёрнем
3%
Найджел Фараж
3%
Ал Карнс
1%
Иветт Купер
1%
Дэвид Лемми
1%
Шабана Махмуд
1%
Люси Пауэлл
1%
Кеми Баденох
1%
Рэйчел Ривз
<1%
Даррен Джонс
<1%
Роберт Дженрик
<1%
Джеймс Клеверли
<1%
Борис Джонсон
<1%
Эд Дейви
<1%
Бриджет Филипсон
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 44.5% implied probability of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, driven by Keir Starmer's determination to hold office amid Labour's commanding parliamentary majority and no general election required until 2029. Despite Starmer's net approval rating plunging to -48 and Reform UK leading national polls, his allies warn that a leadership coup could prompt opposition demands for a vote, stabilizing his position for now. Angela Rayner's 16.5% odds stem from her mid-March speeches branding government migration reforms "un-British" and urging policy shifts, reigniting speculation of an internal Labour challenge around the May 7 local elections, where heavy losses loom. Lower probabilities for Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, and others highlight limited positioning amid reshuffle rumors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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