Polymarket traders price a modest 42% implied probability for silver (SI) futures to hit $32 per ounce by March 31, reflecting cooling industrial demand amid China's sluggish economic recovery and a strengthening US dollar index above 104. Spot silver trades at $31.20, down 2% weekly, pressured by hawkish Fed rhetoric delaying rate cuts despite softening CPI data. Key drivers include ETF outflows totaling $150M last month and gold's outperformance, but upside risks loom from upcoming FOMC minutes on October 9 and November CPI releases, which could signal looser policy boosting precious metals. Historical precedent shows silver rallying 15% post-Fed pivots, yet trader consensus hedges against recession odds at 25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,150,019 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
4%
↑ $100
3%
↑ $95
5%
↓ $70
100%
↓ $65
55%
↓ $60
20%
↓ $50
4%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
$1,150,019 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
4%
↑ $100
3%
↑ $95
5%
↓ $70
100%
↓ $65
55%
↓ $60
20%
↓ $50
4%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a modest 42% implied probability for silver (SI) futures to hit $32 per ounce by March 31, reflecting cooling industrial demand amid China's sluggish economic recovery and a strengthening US dollar index above 104. Spot silver trades at $31.20, down 2% weekly, pressured by hawkish Fed rhetoric delaying rate cuts despite softening CPI data. Key drivers include ETF outflows totaling $150M last month and gold's outperformance, but upside risks loom from upcoming FOMC minutes on October 9 and November CPI releases, which could signal looser policy boosting precious metals. Historical precedent shows silver rallying 15% post-Fed pivots, yet trader consensus hedges against recession odds at 25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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