A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Jun 18 2026
Makerfield by-election held with Andy Burnham as clear frontrunner
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%14%
The by-election took place with Burnham widely expected to win due to his strong local support and weakened opposition. Market prices surged to near certainty for Burnham's victory, reflecting consensus on the outcome before official results.
Jun 10 2026
Robert Kenyon's poor media performances further weaken Reform UK campaign
Robert Kenyon drops to 14%10%
Kenyon's disastrous interviews and public appearances, including on BBC Question Time, highlighted his controversial views and inability to effectively defend them, leading to a further collapse in his market price to single digits.
May 27 2026
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon faces backlash over sexist and far-right social media posts
Robert Kenyon drops to 16%14%
Revelations about Kenyon's controversial social media history led to negative media coverage and public criticism, damaging his campaign and causing his market price to decline sharply from around 30% to below 20%.
May 27 2026
Controversy over Robert Kenyon's past social media posts intensifies
Robert Kenyon drops to 26%6%
Reports emerged detailing offensive and far-right linked social media posts by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, leading to negative media coverage and damaging his campaign, reflected in a decline in his market price.
May 25 2026
Restore Britain announces Rebecca Shepherd as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Rebecca Shepherd dips to 5%1%
Restore Britain, a new party, announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate, introducing a right-wing challenger that could split the vote and impact Reform UK's support.
May 23 2026
First Survation poll shows Andy Burnham narrowly leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon
Andy Burnham rises to 74%4%
The Survation poll indicated a tight race with Burnham at 43% and Kenyon at 40%, reflecting a competitive contest and causing some market volatility. This poll validated Kenyon's local appeal but also Burnham's strong personal vote, keeping both candidates' prices active.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham declares Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham publicly framed the by-election as a critical moment for the country and emphasized his understanding of local concerns, reinforcing his campaign momentum and market confidence.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham launches campaign, calls Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham's campaign launch and media appearances emphasized his commitment to local issues and national leadership ambitions, boosting market confidence in his win. His statements on immigration and public trust resonated with voters, supporting his market price increase to mid-60s percentages.
May 21 2026
Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdraws from Makerfield by-election
Chris Kennedy withdrew his candidacy citing personal reasons, reducing the number of minor candidates and potentially affecting vote distribution, though with limited market impact.
May 19 2026
Reform UK selects Robert Kenyon as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Robert Kenyon plunges to 31%19%
Reform UK officially selected local councillor Robert Kenyon as their candidate, positioning him as the main challenger to Burnham and causing initial market interest in his chances.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 70%6%
Labour's National Executive Committee officially selected Andy Burnham as their candidate, solidifying his position and boosting market confidence in his chances. This led to a significant increase in Burnham's market price.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham officially announced as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 66%4%
Labour announced Burnham as their candidate, highlighting his local roots and leadership ambitions. This solidified market confidence in his victory, pushing his price higher. The announcement also framed the contest as a key political moment, increasing attention on Burnham's campaign.
May 15 2026
Labour selects Andy Burnham as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%12%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons resigned to make way for him. This official endorsement positioned Burnham as the frontrunner, causing his market price to rise from 50% to around 62%.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Jun 18 2026
Makerfield by-election held with Andy Burnham as clear frontrunner
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%14%
The by-election took place with Burnham widely expected to win due to his strong local support and weakened opposition. Market prices surged to near certainty for Burnham's victory, reflecting consensus on the outcome before official results.
Jun 10 2026
Robert Kenyon's poor media performances further weaken Reform UK campaign
Robert Kenyon drops to 14%10%
Kenyon's disastrous interviews and public appearances, including on BBC Question Time, highlighted his controversial views and inability to effectively defend them, leading to a further collapse in his market price to single digits.
May 27 2026
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon faces backlash over sexist and far-right social media posts
Robert Kenyon drops to 16%14%
Revelations about Kenyon's controversial social media history led to negative media coverage and public criticism, damaging his campaign and causing his market price to decline sharply from around 30% to below 20%.
May 27 2026
Controversy over Robert Kenyon's past social media posts intensifies
Robert Kenyon drops to 26%6%
Reports emerged detailing offensive and far-right linked social media posts by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, leading to negative media coverage and damaging his campaign, reflected in a decline in his market price.
May 25 2026
Restore Britain announces Rebecca Shepherd as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Rebecca Shepherd dips to 5%1%
Restore Britain, a new party, announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate, introducing a right-wing challenger that could split the vote and impact Reform UK's support.
May 23 2026
First Survation poll shows Andy Burnham narrowly leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon
Andy Burnham rises to 74%4%
The Survation poll indicated a tight race with Burnham at 43% and Kenyon at 40%, reflecting a competitive contest and causing some market volatility. This poll validated Kenyon's local appeal but also Burnham's strong personal vote, keeping both candidates' prices active.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham declares Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham publicly framed the by-election as a critical moment for the country and emphasized his understanding of local concerns, reinforcing his campaign momentum and market confidence.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham launches campaign, calls Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham's campaign launch and media appearances emphasized his commitment to local issues and national leadership ambitions, boosting market confidence in his win. His statements on immigration and public trust resonated with voters, supporting his market price increase to mid-60s percentages.
May 21 2026
Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdraws from Makerfield by-election
Chris Kennedy withdrew his candidacy citing personal reasons, reducing the number of minor candidates and potentially affecting vote distribution, though with limited market impact.
May 19 2026
Reform UK selects Robert Kenyon as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Robert Kenyon plunges to 31%19%
Reform UK officially selected local councillor Robert Kenyon as their candidate, positioning him as the main challenger to Burnham and causing initial market interest in his chances.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 70%6%
Labour's National Executive Committee officially selected Andy Burnham as their candidate, solidifying his position and boosting market confidence in his chances. This led to a significant increase in Burnham's market price.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham officially announced as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 66%4%
Labour announced Burnham as their candidate, highlighting his local roots and leadership ambitions. This solidified market confidence in his victory, pushing his price higher. The announcement also framed the contest as a key political moment, increasing attention on Burnham's campaign.
May 15 2026
Labour selects Andy Burnham as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%12%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons resigned to make way for him. This official endorsement positioned Burnham as the frontrunner, causing his market price to rise from 50% to around 62%.
"Makerfield by-election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Andy Burnham" at 100%, followed by "Simon Finkelstein" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Makerfield by-election Winner" has generated $8.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Makerfield by-election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Makerfield by-election Winner" is "Andy Burnham" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Simon Finkelstein" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Makerfield by-election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Makerfield by-election Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $8.8 million traded on “Makerfield by-election Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Makerfield by-election Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Andy Burnham" in the "Makerfield by-election Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "Andy Burnham" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Makerfield by-election Winner" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.
The "Makerfield by-election Winner" market has an active community of 165 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Makerfield by-election Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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