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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Market icon
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.6%

Renan Santos 6.1%

Fernando Haddad 5.2%

Polymarket

$40,618,000 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.6%

Renan Santos 6.1%

Fernando Haddad 5.2%

Polymarket

$40,618,000 Vol.

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,331,733 Vol.

43%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$3,821,179 Vol.

38%

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Renan Santos

$3,645,571 Vol.

6%

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Fernando Haddad

$3,043,941 Vol.

5%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$1,326,862 Vol.

3%

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Romeu Zema

$268,131 Vol.

1%

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Camilo Santana

$641,696 Vol.

1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,490,788 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$315,461 Vol.

1%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$6,067,941 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$3,048,279 Vol.

<1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$5,235,088 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Leite

$1,112,021 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$5,270,114 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Paraná Pesquisas (March 25–28) and BTG Pactual/Nexus (March 27–29), show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a slim first-round lead at 38–42% over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 36–40%, with a simulated runoff tied at 46% apiece, aligning with trader consensus on a closely contested race. This tightness stems from Brazil's polarized electorate, where Lula benefits from incumbency and PT base loyalty despite economic headwinds and scandals like Master, while Flávio leverages his father's PL endorsement and bolsonarista support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. No candidate nears 50%, priming a likely October 25 runoff after the October 4 first round; separation could arise from economic data releases, key endorsements, campaign events, or health/legal developments for either side.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$40,618,000
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Paraná Pesquisas (March 25–28) and BTG Pactual/Nexus (March 27–29), show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a slim first-round lead at 38–42% over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 36–40%, with a simulated runoff tied at 46% apiece, aligning with trader consensus on a closely contested race. This tightness stems from Brazil's polarized electorate, where Lula benefits from incumbency and PT base loyalty despite economic headwinds and scandals like Master, while Flávio leverages his father's PL endorsement and bolsonarista support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. No candidate nears 50%, priming a likely October 25 runoff after the October 4 first round; separation could arise from economic data releases, key endorsements, campaign events, or health/legal developments for either side.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$40,618,000
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

Market icon

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

64%
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Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

35%
Market icon

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

33%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 43%, followed by "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election" has generated $40.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election" is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.