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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Market icon
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 42%

Flávio Bolsonaro 41.5%

Fernando Haddad 6.3%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Polymarket

$33,300,901 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 42%

Flávio Bolsonaro 41.5%

Fernando Haddad 6.3%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Polymarket

$33,300,901 Vol.

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,207,371 Vol.

42%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$3,708,436 Vol.

42%

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Fernando Haddad

$2,806,801 Vol.

6%

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Renan Santos

$3,422,241 Vol.

6%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$5,446,937 Vol.

1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,438,285 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$2,790,908 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$4,604,836 Vol.

<1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$3,877,018 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (March 18-23) showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.6% over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 46.6% in a simulated runoff—the first numerical lead—and Gerp (March 20-25) with Flávio ahead 48%-45%, underpin Polymarket traders' consensus of a dead heat at 41.5% apiece for the October 4 first-round vote, likely heading to a second-round showdown on October 25. Lula maintains a 2-6 point edge in first-round scenarios amid incumbency advantages, but Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal has bolstered opposition consolidation behind the Bolsonaro scion, fueled by anti-incumbent sentiment and his father's enduring base despite both candidates' negative ratings exceeding 50%. High undecided shares (5-18%) and economic pressures keep the race volatile; party conventions and fresh polling could tip the balance toward a clearer frontrunner.

Recent polls, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (March 18-23) showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.6% over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 46.6% in a simulated runoff—the first numerical lead—and Gerp (March 20-25) with Flávio ahead 48%-45%, underpin Polymarket traders' consensus of a dead heat at 41.5% apiece for the October 4 first-round vote, likely heading to a second-round showdown on October 25. Lula maintains a 2-6 point edge in first-round scenarios amid incumbency advantages, but Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal has bolstered opposition consolidation behind the Bolsonaro scion, fueled by anti-incumbent sentiment and his father's enduring base despite both candidates' negative ratings exceeding 50%. High undecided shares (5-18%) and economic pressures keep the race volatile; party conventions and fresh polling could tip the balance toward a clearer frontrunner.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (March 18-23) showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.6% over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 46.6% in a simulated runoff—the first numerical lead—and Gerp (March 20-25) with Flávio ahead 48%-45%, underpin Polymarket traders' consensus of a dead heat at 41.5% apiece for the October 4 first-round vote, likely heading to a second-round showdown on October 25. Lula maintains a 2-6 point edge in first-round scenarios amid incumbency advantages, but Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal has bolstered opposition consolidation behind the Bolsonaro scion, fueled by anti-incumbent sentiment and his father's enduring base despite both candidates' negative ratings exceeding 50%. High undecided shares (5-18%) and economic pressures keep the race volatile; party conventions and fresh polling could tip the balance toward a clearer frontrunner.

Recent polls, including AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (March 18-23) showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.6% over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 46.6% in a simulated runoff—the first numerical lead—and Gerp (March 20-25) with Flávio ahead 48%-45%, underpin Polymarket traders' consensus of a dead heat at 41.5% apiece for the October 4 first-round vote, likely heading to a second-round showdown on October 25. Lula maintains a 2-6 point edge in first-round scenarios amid incumbency advantages, but Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal has bolstered opposition consolidation behind the Bolsonaro scion, fueled by anti-incumbent sentiment and his father's enduring base despite both candidates' negative ratings exceeding 50%. High undecided shares (5-18%) and economic pressures keep the race volatile; party conventions and fresh polling could tip the balance toward a clearer frontrunner.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

58%
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Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

36%
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

41%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 42%, followed by "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election" has generated $33.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election" is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.