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Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

21°C 47%

22°C 25%

20°C 22%

23°C or higher 6.9%

Polymarket

$362,738 Vol.

21°C 47%

22°C 25%

20°C 22%

23°C or higher 6.9%

Polymarket

$362,738 Vol.

20°C

$8,463 Vol.

22%

21°C

$4,715 Vol.

47%

22°C

$11,478 Vol.

25%

23°C or higher

$6,747 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Wellington high of 21°C at 45.5% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast models projecting mild autumn conditions under a high-pressure ridge suppressing temperatures. Recent observations show daily highs averaging 20-22°C over the past week, with no significant warm air advection or frontal activity to push toward 23°C or higher (just 6.4%). The 22°C outcome at 23.5% reflects potential for slight model upside from northerly winds, while 20°C (16.5%) accounts for possible cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts indicate low volatility, but a fresh model run expected tomorrow could refine these odds as March 28 nears. Historical March norms (average 20.5°C) align with this clustering around 21°C.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Wellington high of 21°C at 45.5% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast models projecting mild autumn conditions under a high-pressure ridge suppressing temperatures. Recent observations show daily highs averaging 20-22°C over the past week, with no significant warm air advection or frontal activity to push toward 23°C or higher (just 6.4%). The 22°C outcome at 23.5% reflects potential for slight model upside from northerly winds, while 20°C (16.5%) accounts for possible cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts indicate low volatility, but a fresh model run expected tomorrow could refine these odds as March 28 nears. Historical March norms (average 20.5°C) align with this clustering around 21°C.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Wellington high of 21°C at 45.5% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast models projecting mild autumn conditions under a high-pressure ridge suppressing temperatures. Recent observations show daily highs averaging 20-22°C over the past week, with no significant warm air advection or frontal activity to push toward 23°C or higher (just 6.4%). The 22°C outcome at 23.5% reflects potential for slight model upside from northerly winds, while 20°C (16.5%) accounts for possible cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts indicate low volatility, but a fresh model run expected tomorrow could refine these odds as March 28 nears. Historical March norms (average 20.5°C) align with this clustering around 21°C.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Wellington high of 21°C at 45.5% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast models projecting mild autumn conditions under a high-pressure ridge suppressing temperatures. Recent observations show daily highs averaging 20-22°C over the past week, with no significant warm air advection or frontal activity to push toward 23°C or higher (just 6.4%). The 22°C outcome at 23.5% reflects potential for slight model upside from northerly winds, while 20°C (16.5%) accounts for possible cloud cover. Ensemble forecasts indicate low volatility, but a fresh model run expected tomorrow could refine these odds as March 28 nears. Historical March norms (average 20.5°C) align with this clustering around 21°C.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "21°C" at 47%, followed by "22°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?" has generated $362.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?" is "21°C" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "22°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.