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Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

18°C 44%

17°C 36%

19°C 13%

20°C 4.0%

Polymarket

$41,878 Vol.

18°C 44%

17°C 36%

19°C 13%

20°C 4.0%

Polymarket

$41,878 Vol.

11°C or below

$15,548 Vol.

<1%

12°C

$8,797 Vol.

<1%

13°C

$1,459 Vol.

1%

14°C

$1,069 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$2,055 Vol.

1%

16°C

$2,486 Vol.

4%

17°C

$1,699 Vol.

36%

18°C

$2,022 Vol.

44%

19°C

$1,742 Vol.

13%

20°C

$1,383 Vol.

4%

21°C or higher

$3,619 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward an 18°C high in Tokyo on March 28 at 43.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 17°C at 35.5%, reflecting the Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast models showing a peak near 18°C under high-pressure dominance and mild southerly winds enhancing daytime warming. Ensemble predictions from JMA indicate a tight spread of 16–19°C, driven by abundant sunshine, low cloud cover observed via satellite, and urban heat island effects amplifying temperatures in central Tokyo. Recent observational data from Haneda and Narita stations confirm overnight lows around 10–12°C, setting up a 6–8°C diurnal range typical for late March. Updated guidance expected midday could refine this; historical March norms average 13–15°C, but this season's warmer baseline adds upside risk to 19°C or higher.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,878
End Date
Mar 28, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward an 18°C high in Tokyo on March 28 at 43.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 17°C at 35.5%, reflecting the Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast models showing a peak near 18°C under high-pressure dominance and mild southerly winds enhancing daytime warming. Ensemble predictions from JMA indicate a tight spread of 16–19°C, driven by abundant sunshine, low cloud cover observed via satellite, and urban heat island effects amplifying temperatures in central Tokyo. Recent observational data from Haneda and Narita stations confirm overnight lows around 10–12°C, setting up a 6–8°C diurnal range typical for late March. Updated guidance expected midday could refine this; historical March norms average 13–15°C, but this season's warmer baseline adds upside risk to 19°C or higher.

Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward an 18°C high in Tokyo on March 28 at 43.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 17°C at 35.5%, reflecting the Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast models showing a peak near 18°C under high-pressure dominance and mild southerly winds enhancing daytime warming. Ensemble predictions from JMA indicate a tight spread of 16–19°C, driven by abundant sunshine, low cloud cover observed via satellite, and urban heat island effects amplifying temperatures in central Tokyo. Recent observational data from Haneda and Narita stations confirm overnight lows around 10–12°C, setting up a 6–8°C diurnal range typical for late March. Updated guidance expected midday could refine this; historical March norms average 13–15°C, but this season's warmer baseline adds upside risk to 19°C or higher.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "18°C" at 44%, followed by "17°C" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" has generated $41.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" is "18°C" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "17°C" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.