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Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

13°C 34%

12°C 29%

14°C 20%

11°C or below 9%

Polymarket

$115,769 Vol.

13°C 34%

12°C 29%

14°C 20%

11°C or below 9%

Polymarket

$115,769 Vol.

11°C or below

$1,911 Vol.

9%

12°C

$1,130 Vol.

29%

13°C

$976 Vol.

34%

14°C

$1,568 Vol.

20%

15°C

$968 Vol.

4%

16°C

$990 Vol.

4%

17°C

$1,212 Vol.

2%

18°C

$1,206 Vol.

1%

19°C

$1,572 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$65,583 Vol.

<1%

21°C or higher

$38,688 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble model forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid's highest temperature on March 29 around 12-13°C, shaped by a northerly flow advecting cooler air from the European continent under a persistent upper-level ridge. Trader-implied odds highlight this tight clustering, with 13°C edging ahead due to recent GFS runs showing modest boundary-layer warming potential, while 12°C reflects ensemble means accounting for expected stratocumulus cloud cover limiting insolation. Differentiating factors include afternoon wind shear and dew point temperatures near 5°C, which cap convective heating; historical March highs average 15°C but current synoptic patterns favor restraint. AEMET's next advisory will refine land surface model inputs amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$115,769
End Date
Mar 29, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble model forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid's highest temperature on March 29 around 12-13°C, shaped by a northerly flow advecting cooler air from the European continent under a persistent upper-level ridge. Trader-implied odds highlight this tight clustering, with 13°C edging ahead due to recent GFS runs showing modest boundary-layer warming potential, while 12°C reflects ensemble means accounting for expected stratocumulus cloud cover limiting insolation. Differentiating factors include afternoon wind shear and dew point temperatures near 5°C, which cap convective heating; historical March highs average 15°C but current synoptic patterns favor restraint. AEMET's next advisory will refine land surface model inputs amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.

Ensemble model forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid's highest temperature on March 29 around 12-13°C, shaped by a northerly flow advecting cooler air from the European continent under a persistent upper-level ridge. Trader-implied odds highlight this tight clustering, with 13°C edging ahead due to recent GFS runs showing modest boundary-layer warming potential, while 12°C reflects ensemble means accounting for expected stratocumulus cloud cover limiting insolation. Differentiating factors include afternoon wind shear and dew point temperatures near 5°C, which cap convective heating; historical March highs average 15°C but current synoptic patterns favor restraint. AEMET's next advisory will refine land surface model inputs amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "13°C" at 34%, followed by "12°C" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?" has generated $115.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?" is "13°C" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12°C" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.