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Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

19°C 50%

18°C 23.8%

20°C 14%

17°C 5.5%

Polymarket

$124,930 Vol.

19°C 50%

18°C 23.8%

20°C 14%

17°C 5.5%

Polymarket

$124,930 Vol.

12°C or below

$51,955 Vol.

<1%

13°C

$4,662 Vol.

<1%

14°C

$3,732 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$5,132 Vol.

1%

16°C

$8,166 Vol.

1%

17°C

$10,112 Vol.

5%

18°C

$13,235 Vol.

24%

19°C

$7,511 Vol.

50%

20°C

$5,641 Vol.

14%

21°C

$5,761 Vol.

1%

22°C or higher

$9,215 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on March 27 at 49% implied probability, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF forecast ensembles from the past 24 hours, which project mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia. Southerly flows are advecting warmer continental air, with model maxima converging near 19°C after accounting for urban heat effects and boundary layer mixing, though slight model spread supports 18°C (24%) or 20°C (15%) as viable alternatives. March climatology averages 16–18°C, but positive temperature anomalies driven by quasi-resonant amplification patterns elevate expectations. New 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs expected soon could sharpen resolution criteria before the daily observation.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$124,930
End Date
Mar 27, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on March 27 at 49% implied probability, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF forecast ensembles from the past 24 hours, which project mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia. Southerly flows are advecting warmer continental air, with model maxima converging near 19°C after accounting for urban heat effects and boundary layer mixing, though slight model spread supports 18°C (24%) or 20°C (15%) as viable alternatives. March climatology averages 16–18°C, but positive temperature anomalies driven by quasi-resonant amplification patterns elevate expectations. New 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs expected soon could sharpen resolution criteria before the daily observation.

Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 19°C in Madrid on March 27 at 49% implied probability, reflecting the latest AEMET and ECMWF forecast ensembles from the past 24 hours, which project mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia. Southerly flows are advecting warmer continental air, with model maxima converging near 19°C after accounting for urban heat effects and boundary layer mixing, though slight model spread supports 18°C (24%) or 20°C (15%) as viable alternatives. March climatology averages 16–18°C, but positive temperature anomalies driven by quasi-resonant amplification patterns elevate expectations. New 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs expected soon could sharpen resolution criteria before the daily observation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "19°C" at 50%, followed by "18°C" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?" has generated $124.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?" is "19°C" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "18°C" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.