The Massachusetts 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss faces limited opposition in the September 2026 primary and a Republican primary challenger with minimal statewide profile or fundraising, while the general-election environment in this southeastern Massachusetts district has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. No major developments in the past month have altered the structural advantages of incumbency or the district’s voter registration patterns. A Democratic victory could still face disruption from an unexpected primary upset, late scandal, or unusually strong national Republican tailwinds, though historical base rates for comparable safe seats show such shifts remain rare.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$35,185 거래량
$35,185 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
6%
$35,185 거래량
$35,185 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$17,239 거래량
94%
공화당
$17,946 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss faces limited opposition in the September 2026 primary and a Republican primary challenger with minimal statewide profile or fundraising, while the general-election environment in this southeastern Massachusetts district has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. No major developments in the past month have altered the structural advantages of incumbency or the district’s voter registration patterns. A Democratic victory could still face disruption from an unexpected primary upset, late scandal, or unusually strong national Republican tailwinds, though historical base rates for comparable safe seats show such shifts remain rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$35,185종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss faces limited opposition in the September 2026 primary and a Republican primary challenger with minimal statewide profile or fundraising, while the general-election environment in this southeastern Massachusetts district has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. No major developments in the past month have altered the structural advantages of incumbency or the district’s voter registration patterns. A Democratic victory could still face disruption from an unexpected primary upset, late scandal, or unusually strong national Republican tailwinds, though historical base rates for comparable safe seats show such shifts remain rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$35,185종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Massachusetts 4th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss faces limited opposition in the September 2026 primary and a Republican primary challenger with minimal statewide profile or fundraising, while the general-election environment in this southeastern Massachusetts district has produced double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. No major developments in the past month have altered the structural advantages of incumbency or the district’s voter registration patterns. A Democratic victory could still face disruption from an unexpected primary upset, late scandal, or unusually strong national Republican tailwinds, though historical base rates for comparable safe seats show such shifts remain rare.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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