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選挙·トランプ

カマラ・ハリスは、6月30日までに2028年の大統領選挙を発表しますか？

Market icon
選挙·トランプ

カマラ・ハリスは、6月30日までに2028年の大統領選挙を発表しますか？

はい

7% chance
Polymarket

$28,506 Vol.

はい

7% chance
Polymarket

$28,506 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris or her legal or social media representatives (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Vice President Kamala Harris has made no official announcement or exploratory moves toward a 2028 presidential bid since her February 24 interview, where she stated she has not decided but "might" run, leaving the door open without commitment. This non-committal stance amid a post-2024 loss and emerging Democratic rivals like Gavin Newsom has solidified trader consensus at 93% "No" for an announcement by June 30, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in skin-in-the-game betting. Recent polling shows mixed Democratic support, with Harris trailing in early 2028 primary hypotheticals, while her public focus remains on critiquing Trump administration actions like Iran strikes rather than campaign groundwork. Midterm priorities and historical patterns of late-cycle announcements further diminish near-term odds, though a surprise shift could arise from shifting party dynamics.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris has made no official announcement or exploratory moves toward a 2028 presidential bid since her February 24 interview, where she stated she has not decided but "might" run, leaving the door open without commitment. This non-committal stance amid a post-2024 loss and emerging Democratic rivals like Gavin Newsom has solidified trader consensus at 93% "No" for an announcement by June 30, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in skin-in-the-game betting. Recent polling shows mixed Democratic support, with Harris trailing in early 2028 primary hypotheticals, while her public focus remains on critiquing Trump administration actions like Iran strikes rather than campaign groundwork. Midterm priorities and historical patterns of late-cycle announcements further diminish near-term odds, though a surprise shift could arise from shifting party dynamics.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris or her legal or social media representatives (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Vice President Kamala Harris has made no official announcement or exploratory moves toward a 2028 presidential bid since her February 24 interview, where she stated she has not decided but "might" run, leaving the door open without commitment. This non-committal stance amid a post-2024 loss and emerging Democratic rivals like Gavin Newsom has solidified trader consensus at 93% "No" for an announcement by June 30, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in skin-in-the-game betting. Recent polling shows mixed Democratic support, with Harris trailing in early 2028 primary hypotheticals, while her public focus remains on critiquing Trump administration actions like Iran strikes rather than campaign groundwork. Midterm priorities and historical patterns of late-cycle announcements further diminish near-term odds, though a surprise shift could arise from shifting party dynamics.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris has made no official announcement or exploratory moves toward a 2028 presidential bid since her February 24 interview, where she stated she has not decided but "might" run, leaving the door open without commitment. This non-committal stance amid a post-2024 loss and emerging Democratic rivals like Gavin Newsom has solidified trader consensus at 93% "No" for an announcement by June 30, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in skin-in-the-game betting. Recent polling shows mixed Democratic support, with Harris trailing in early 2028 primary hypotheticals, while her public focus remains on critiquing Trump administration actions like Iran strikes rather than campaign groundwork. Midterm priorities and historical patterns of late-cycle announcements further diminish near-term odds, though a surprise shift could arise from shifting party dynamics.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「カマラ・ハリスは、6月30日までに2028年の大統領選挙を発表しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「カマラ・ハリスは6月30日までに2028年の大統領選挙への出馬を表明するか？」で7%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、7¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に7%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「カマラ・ハリスは、6月30日までに2028年の大統領選挙を発表しますか？」は$28.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 16, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「カマラ・ハリスは、6月30日までに2028年の大統領選挙を発表しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「カマラ・ハリスは、6月30日までに2028年の大統領選挙を発表しますか？」の現在のリーダーは「カマラ・ハリスは6月30日までに2028年の大統領選挙への出馬を表明するか？」でわずか7%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

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