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政治·イーロン・マスク

イーロン・マスク氏は2027年までに大統領選挙に出馬すると発表しますか？

Market icon
政治·イーロン・マスク

イーロン・マスク氏は2027年までに大統領選挙に出馬すると発表しますか？

Dec 31

Dec 31

はい

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW

はい

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.

Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.

Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「イーロン・マスク氏は2027年までに大統領選挙に出馬すると発表しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イーロン・マスクは2027年までに大統領選出馬を表明するか？」で6%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、6¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に6%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「イーロン・マスク氏は2027年までに大統領選挙に出馬すると発表しますか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Nov 5, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「イーロン・マスク氏は2027年までに大統領選挙に出馬すると発表しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「イーロン・マスク氏は2027年までに大統領選挙に出馬すると発表しますか？」の現在のリーダーは「イーロン・マスクは2027年までに大統領選出馬を表明するか？」でわずか6%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イーロン・マスク氏は2027年までに大統領選挙に出馬すると発表しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。