Anthropic's Claude AI service has faced persistent outages and degradations throughout March 2024, with the status page logging incidents on at least 11 days already—driven by surging demand post-Claude 3 model launch on March 4, which strained server capacity amid rapid user adoption. This technical reality underpins the market's 97.3% implied probability for 11+ downtime days, reflecting trader consensus on unresolved scaling challenges despite Anthropic's mitigation efforts. While strong positioning holds, a scenario challenging it would require zero further disruptions through March 31 and a potential resolution dispute over partial outage classifications, though historical patterns of intermittent latency make sustained stability unlikely ahead of peak usage periods.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
9〜10
1%
11回以上
99%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
9〜10
$2,651 Vol.
1%
11回以上
$6,847 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
音量
$9,498終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
音量
$9,498終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude AI service has faced persistent outages and degradations throughout March 2024, with the status page logging incidents on at least 11 days already—driven by surging demand post-Claude 3 model launch on March 4, which strained server capacity amid rapid user adoption. This technical reality underpins the market's 97.3% implied probability for 11+ downtime days, reflecting trader consensus on unresolved scaling challenges despite Anthropic's mitigation efforts. While strong positioning holds, a scenario challenging it would require zero further disruptions through March 31 and a potential resolution dispute over partial outage classifications, though historical patterns of intermittent latency make sustained stability unlikely ahead of peak usage periods.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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