Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% chance against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2027, driven primarily by formidable U.S. deterrence through arms sales, F-16 deliveries, and alliances like AUKUS, alongside China's economic challenges and insufficient amphibious capabilities for a large-scale assault. Recent PLA drills, such as October's "Joint Sword 2024B" following President Lai Ching-te's UN speech, signal coercion via gray-zone tactics rather than invasion preparations, echoing patterns since Taiwan's 2024 election without escalation. Official rhetoric from Beijing emphasizes peaceful reunification, while wargames highlight prohibitive costs, reinforcing market skepticism amid cross-Strait stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$143,510 Vol.
$143,510 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
4%を獲得
はい
$143,510 Vol.
$143,510 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
4%を獲得
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$143,510終了日
Dec 31, 2027マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$143,510終了日
Dec 31, 2027マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% chance against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2027, driven primarily by formidable U.S. deterrence through arms sales, F-16 deliveries, and alliances like AUKUS, alongside China's economic challenges and insufficient amphibious capabilities for a large-scale assault. Recent PLA drills, such as October's "Joint Sword 2024B" following President Lai Ching-te's UN speech, signal coercion via gray-zone tactics rather than invasion preparations, echoing patterns since Taiwan's 2024 election without escalation. Official rhetoric from Beijing emphasizes peaceful reunification, while wargames highlight prohibitive costs, reinforcing market skepticism amid cross-Strait stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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