US and Israeli forces have sustained high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on their active involvement before the March 31 deadline. Recent escalations include new US casualties from Iranian drone and missile barrages on bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, alongside Israel's intensified focus on degrading Tehran's military-industrial base amid President Trump's reported ceasefire overtures. The UK, France, and Germany have affirmed readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missile and drone launch sites, while Saudi Arabia and UAE signal potential strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, as Pentagon preparations for ground operations heighten uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,831,669 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
サウジアラビア
4%
UAE
3%
カタール
2%
バーレーン
2%
ヨルダン
1%
いずれかのEU加盟国
1%
英国
1%
クウェート
1%
トルコ
1%
フランス
1%
オマーン
1%
ドイツ
<1%
カナダ
<1%
$10,831,669 Vol.
サウジアラビア
$2,205,410 Vol.
4%
UAE
$2,851,318 Vol.
3%
カタール
$946,120 Vol.
2%
バーレーン
$392,798 Vol.
2%
ヨルダン
$189,651 Vol.
1%
いずれかのEU加盟国
$472,045 Vol.
1%
英国
$948,389 Vol.
1%
クウェート
$211,626 Vol.
1%
トルコ
$481,794 Vol.
1%
フランス
$750,278 Vol.
1%
オマーン
$132,053 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$912,034 Vol.
<1%
カナダ
$339,706 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have sustained high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on their active involvement before the March 31 deadline. Recent escalations include new US casualties from Iranian drone and missile barrages on bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, alongside Israel's intensified focus on degrading Tehran's military-industrial base amid President Trump's reported ceasefire overtures. The UK, France, and Germany have affirmed readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missile and drone launch sites, while Saudi Arabia and UAE signal potential strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, as Pentagon preparations for ground operations heighten uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ET
音量
$10,831,669終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have sustained high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on their active involvement before the March 31 deadline. Recent escalations include new US casualties from Iranian drone and missile barrages on bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, alongside Israel's intensified focus on degrading Tehran's military-industrial base amid President Trump's reported ceasefire overtures. The UK, France, and Germany have affirmed readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missile and drone launch sites, while Saudi Arabia and UAE signal potential strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, as Pentagon preparations for ground operations heighten uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,831,669終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 10:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces have sustained high-tempo airstrikes against Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, and arms production facilities since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, anchoring trader consensus on their active involvement before the March 31 deadline. Recent escalations include new US casualties from Iranian drone and missile barrages on bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, alongside Israel's intensified focus on degrading Tehran's military-industrial base amid President Trump's reported ceasefire overtures. The UK, France, and Germany have affirmed readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missile and drone launch sites, while Saudi Arabia and UAE signal potential strikes if Iran targets their energy infrastructure. Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, as Pentagon preparations for ground operations heighten uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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