US and Israel have led a sustained military campaign against Iran since early March, launching airstrikes on ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and Tehran following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and Iranian missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states. Recent developments include Israel's March 27 vow to intensify and expand strikes, ongoing US operations destroying key targets as stated by President Trump on March 30, and Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal as "unreasonable" on March 25. Gulf Cooperation Council nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles, with unconfirmed reports of limited offensive responses, while UK bases support US air missions. With the March 31 deadline hours away, traders weigh de-escalation diplomacy against escalation risks from retaliatory exchanges and potential ground operations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,841,215 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
UAE
4%
サウジアラビア
4%
カタール
2%
バーレーン
2%
クウェート
2%
ヨルダン
1%
英国
1%
トルコ
1%
いずれかのEU加盟国
1%
フランス
1%
オマーン
1%
ドイツ
<1%
カナダ
<1%
$10,841,215 Vol.
UAE
$2,854,135 Vol.
4%
サウジアラビア
$2,208,459 Vol.
4%
カタール
$946,291 Vol.
2%
バーレーン
$392,924 Vol.
2%
クウェート
$211,662 Vol.
2%
ヨルダン
$189,690 Vol.
1%
英国
$948,392 Vol.
1%
トルコ
$481,803 Vol.
1%
いずれかのEU加盟国
$473,070 Vol.
1%
フランス
$750,286 Vol.
1%
オマーン
$132,076 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$912,746 Vol.
<1%
カナダ
$339,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel have led a sustained military campaign against Iran since early March, launching airstrikes on ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and Tehran following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and Iranian missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states. Recent developments include Israel's March 27 vow to intensify and expand strikes, ongoing US operations destroying key targets as stated by President Trump on March 30, and Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal as "unreasonable" on March 25. Gulf Cooperation Council nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles, with unconfirmed reports of limited offensive responses, while UK bases support US air missions. With the March 31 deadline hours away, traders weigh de-escalation diplomacy against escalation risks from retaliatory exchanges and potential ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
音量
$10,841,215終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel have led a sustained military campaign against Iran since early March, launching airstrikes on ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and Tehran following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and Iranian missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states. Recent developments include Israel's March 27 vow to intensify and expand strikes, ongoing US operations destroying key targets as stated by President Trump on March 30, and Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal as "unreasonable" on March 25. Gulf Cooperation Council nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles, with unconfirmed reports of limited offensive responses, while UK bases support US air missions. With the March 31 deadline hours away, traders weigh de-escalation diplomacy against escalation risks from retaliatory exchanges and potential ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,841,215終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel have led a sustained military campaign against Iran since early March, launching airstrikes on ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and Tehran following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and Iranian missile barrages at Israel and Gulf states. Recent developments include Israel's March 27 vow to intensify and expand strikes, ongoing US operations destroying key targets as stated by President Trump on March 30, and Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal as "unreasonable" on March 25. Gulf Cooperation Council nations like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles, with unconfirmed reports of limited offensive responses, while UK bases support US air missions. With the March 31 deadline hours away, traders weigh de-escalation diplomacy against escalation risks from retaliatory exchanges and potential ground operations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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