US and Israeli forces initiated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting leadership including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparking an ongoing conflict with Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Israel conducted fresh strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on March 28 amid Houthi escalation, while Saudi Arabia and UAE urge intensified US-led operations and prepare potential involvement if their facilities are hit. UK, France, and Germany signaled early willingness for defensive strikes on Iranian missile capabilities, with naval and air deployments from multiple nations focusing on Persian Gulf energy security. Trump administration balances military actions with diplomatic channels as Senate considers war powers resolutions, ahead of the March 31 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,857,264 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
カタール
3%
サウジアラビア
3%
UAE
3%
クウェート
1%
バーレーン
1%
ヨルダン
1%
英国
1%
トルコ
1%
フランス
1%
いずれかのEU加盟国
1%
オマーン
1%
ドイツ
<1%
カナダ
<1%
$10,857,264 Vol.
カタール
$950,240 Vol.
3%
サウジアラビア
$2,214,685 Vol.
3%
UAE
$2,858,919 Vol.
3%
クウェート
$211,706 Vol.
1%
バーレーン
$393,451 Vol.
1%
ヨルダン
$189,690 Vol.
1%
英国
$948,392 Vol.
1%
トルコ
$481,803 Vol.
1%
フランス
$750,377 Vol.
1%
いずれかのEU加盟国
$473,319 Vol.
1%
オマーン
$132,169 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$912,757 Vol.
<1%
カナダ
$339,796 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting leadership including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparking an ongoing conflict with Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Israel conducted fresh strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on March 28 amid Houthi escalation, while Saudi Arabia and UAE urge intensified US-led operations and prepare potential involvement if their facilities are hit. UK, France, and Germany signaled early willingness for defensive strikes on Iranian missile capabilities, with naval and air deployments from multiple nations focusing on Persian Gulf energy security. Trump administration balances military actions with diplomatic channels as Senate considers war powers resolutions, ahead of the March 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
音量
$10,857,264終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting leadership including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparking an ongoing conflict with Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Israel conducted fresh strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on March 28 amid Houthi escalation, while Saudi Arabia and UAE urge intensified US-led operations and prepare potential involvement if their facilities are hit. UK, France, and Germany signaled early willingness for defensive strikes on Iranian missile capabilities, with naval and air deployments from multiple nations focusing on Persian Gulf energy security. Trump administration balances military actions with diplomatic channels as Senate considers war powers resolutions, ahead of the March 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,857,264終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces initiated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting leadership including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparking an ongoing conflict with Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Israel conducted fresh strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on March 28 amid Houthi escalation, while Saudi Arabia and UAE urge intensified US-led operations and prepare potential involvement if their facilities are hit. UK, France, and Germany signaled early willingness for defensive strikes on Iranian missile capabilities, with naval and air deployments from multiple nations focusing on Persian Gulf energy security. Trump administration balances military actions with diplomatic channels as Senate considers war powers resolutions, ahead of the March 31 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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