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政治·イスラエル

3月31日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？

Market icon
政治·イスラエル

3月31日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$10,475,750 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$10,475,750 Vol.

Polymarket

サウジアラビア

$2,151,846 Vol.

7%

UAE

$2,596,036 Vol.

5%

バーレーン

$389,149 Vol.

2%

カタール

$938,178 Vol.

1%

クウェート

$209,987 Vol.

1%

英国

$942,088 Vol.

1%

フランス

$745,862 Vol.

1%

トルコ

$476,085 Vol.

1%

いずれかのEU加盟国

$462,945 Vol.

1%

ヨルダン

$187,767 Vol.

1%

オマーン

$130,144 Vol.

<1%

ドイツ

$910,336 Vol.

<1%

カナダ

$335,532 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities like Arak and Isfahan, industrial complexes, and naval assets since late February 2026, including Israeli strikes on March 27 and US actions against Iranian vessels as recently as March 28. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US bases across the Middle East, and unprecedented attacks on all Gulf Cooperation Council states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman—wounding US troops and straining defenses. No Gulf states, UK, or EU countries have launched direct strikes against Iran despite condemnations and interceptions, amid US diplomatic proposals via Pakistan for de-escalation. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects low likelihood of additional actors joining amid ongoing uncertainty and potential ceasefire talks.

US and Israeli forces have conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities like Arak and Isfahan, industrial complexes, and naval assets since late February 2026, including Israeli strikes on March 27 and US actions against Iranian vessels as recently as March 28. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US bases across the Middle East, and unprecedented attacks on all Gulf Cooperation Council states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman—wounding US troops and straining defenses. No Gulf states, UK, or EU countries have launched direct strikes against Iran despite condemnations and interceptions, amid US diplomatic proposals via Pakistan for de-escalation. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects low likelihood of additional actors joining amid ongoing uncertainty and potential ceasefire talks.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities like Arak and Isfahan, industrial complexes, and naval assets since late February 2026, including Israeli strikes on March 27 and US actions against Iranian vessels as recently as March 28. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US bases across the Middle East, and unprecedented attacks on all Gulf Cooperation Council states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman—wounding US troops and straining defenses. No Gulf states, UK, or EU countries have launched direct strikes against Iran despite condemnations and interceptions, amid US diplomatic proposals via Pakistan for de-escalation. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects low likelihood of additional actors joining amid ongoing uncertainty and potential ceasefire talks.

US and Israeli forces have conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities like Arak and Isfahan, industrial complexes, and naval assets since late February 2026, including Israeli strikes on March 27 and US actions against Iranian vessels as recently as March 28. Iran retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US bases across the Middle East, and unprecedented attacks on all Gulf Cooperation Council states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman—wounding US troops and straining defenses. No Gulf states, UK, or EU countries have launched direct strikes against Iran despite condemnations and interceptions, amid US diplomatic proposals via Pakistan for de-escalation. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects low likelihood of additional actors joining amid ongoing uncertainty and potential ceasefire talks.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「3月31日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」はPolymarket上の13個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「サウジアラビア」で7%、次いで「UAE」が5%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、7¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に7%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「3月31日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」は$10.5 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 1, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「3月31日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている13個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「3月31日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」の現在のリーダーは「サウジアラビア」でわずか7%、「UAE」が5%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「3月31日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。