Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low probabilities—led by Tunisia at 18%, Kuwait at 16%, and Saudi Arabia at 12%—to any holdout countries establishing diplomatic recognition of Israel by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled Abraham Accords expansion and no new bilateral breakthroughs in the past 30 days amid heightened Israel-Iran tensions and proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Saudi normalization talks remain contingent on Palestinian statehood progress, with Riyadh citing domestic opposition, while nations like Pakistan and Indonesia face similar domestic and ideological barriers rooted in solidarity with Palestinians. Recent Western recognitions of Palestine, including by the UK and Canada in late 2025, have reinforced holdout stances. Traders eye potential US-brokered Gulf summits or de-escalations as catalysts, though structural hurdles persist.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$88,125 Vol.
北朝鮮
4%
キューバ
6%
サウジアラビア
10%
レバノン
6%
アフガニスタン
6%
イラク
5%
パキスタン
7%
シリア
9%
ベネズエラ
9%
チュニジア
11%
クウェート
10%
カタール
8%
インドネシア
7%
マレーシア
5%
バングラデシュ
10%
$88,125 Vol.
北朝鮮
4%
キューバ
6%
サウジアラビア
10%
レバノン
6%
アフガニスタン
6%
イラク
5%
パキスタン
7%
シリア
9%
ベネズエラ
9%
チュニジア
11%
クウェート
10%
カタール
8%
インドネシア
7%
マレーシア
5%
バングラデシュ
10%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low probabilities—led by Tunisia at 18%, Kuwait at 16%, and Saudi Arabia at 12%—to any holdout countries establishing diplomatic recognition of Israel by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled Abraham Accords expansion and no new bilateral breakthroughs in the past 30 days amid heightened Israel-Iran tensions and proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Saudi normalization talks remain contingent on Palestinian statehood progress, with Riyadh citing domestic opposition, while nations like Pakistan and Indonesia face similar domestic and ideological barriers rooted in solidarity with Palestinians. Recent Western recognitions of Palestine, including by the UK and Canada in late 2025, have reinforced holdout stances. Traders eye potential US-brokered Gulf summits or de-escalations as catalysts, though structural hurdles persist.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問