As of late March 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities—under 20% for leading outcomes like Venezuela, Syria, and Tunisia—to any of the roughly 13-29 non-recognizing UN members establishing diplomatic relations with Israel by June 30, reflecting stalled Abraham Accords momentum since 2020 and heightened regional tensions. Recent Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Israel four days ago, alongside fractures in Israeli political unity over the Iran conflict and joint condemnations by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Qatar, UAE, and others on West Bank land designations, underscore barriers driven by public opposition, Palestinian statehood demands, and no-confidence in normalization talks. No announcements or scheduled summits signal shifts, leaving entrenched holdouts like Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen unlikely to budge absent major de-escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$88,685 Vol.
北朝鮮
4%
キューバ
6%
サウジアラビア
9%
レバノン
6%
アフガニスタン
6%
イラク
5%
パキスタン
7%
シリア
9%
ベネズエラ
9%
チュニジア
11%
クウェート
10%
カタール
8%
インドネシア
7%
マレーシア
5%
バングラデシュ
10%
$88,685 Vol.
北朝鮮
4%
キューバ
6%
サウジアラビア
9%
レバノン
6%
アフガニスタン
6%
イラク
5%
パキスタン
7%
シリア
9%
ベネズエラ
9%
チュニジア
11%
クウェート
10%
カタール
8%
インドネシア
7%
マレーシア
5%
バングラデシュ
10%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...As of late March 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities—under 20% for leading outcomes like Venezuela, Syria, and Tunisia—to any of the roughly 13-29 non-recognizing UN members establishing diplomatic relations with Israel by June 30, reflecting stalled Abraham Accords momentum since 2020 and heightened regional tensions. Recent Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Israel four days ago, alongside fractures in Israeli political unity over the Iran conflict and joint condemnations by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Qatar, UAE, and others on West Bank land designations, underscore barriers driven by public opposition, Palestinian statehood demands, and no-confidence in normalization talks. No announcements or scheduled summits signal shifts, leaving entrenched holdouts like Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen unlikely to budge absent major de-escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問