Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities (6-16%) to any of the 15 holdout countries—primarily Arab and Muslim-majority states like Kuwait (16%), Tunisia (14%), Pakistan (13%), and Saudi Arabia (12%)—formally recognizing Israel by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum amid ongoing Gaza conflict tensions. Over 163 UN members already recognize Israel, with no new formal recognitions since the 2020 Abraham Accords expanded normalization via UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia's potential bilateral deal remains conditional on a credible Palestinian statehood path, per recent statements, but lacks progress in the past 30 days. Traders eye slim chances for late breakthroughs like U.S.-brokered summits or de-escalation signals before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$88,125 Vol.
北朝鮮
4%
キューバ
6%
サウジアラビア
10%
レバノン
6%
アフガニスタン
6%
イラク
5%
パキスタン
7%
シリア
9%
ベネズエラ
9%
チュニジア
11%
クウェート
10%
カタール
8%
インドネシア
7%
マレーシア
5%
バングラデシュ
8%
$88,125 Vol.
北朝鮮
4%
キューバ
6%
サウジアラビア
10%
レバノン
6%
アフガニスタン
6%
イラク
5%
パキスタン
7%
シリア
9%
ベネズエラ
9%
チュニジア
11%
クウェート
10%
カタール
8%
インドネシア
7%
マレーシア
5%
バングラデシュ
8%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities (6-16%) to any of the 15 holdout countries—primarily Arab and Muslim-majority states like Kuwait (16%), Tunisia (14%), Pakistan (13%), and Saudi Arabia (12%)—formally recognizing Israel by June 30, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum amid ongoing Gaza conflict tensions. Over 163 UN members already recognize Israel, with no new formal recognitions since the 2020 Abraham Accords expanded normalization via UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Saudi Arabia's potential bilateral deal remains conditional on a credible Palestinian statehood path, per recent statements, but lacks progress in the past 30 days. Traders eye slim chances for late breakthroughs like U.S.-brokered summits or de-escalation signals before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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