Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward limited participation in the Board of Peace by March 31, with low probabilities assigned to major powers like the US, Russia, and China amid ongoing diplomatic hesitancy. Primary drivers include Saudi Arabia's December initiative to form the board as a neutral platform for Middle East de-escalation talks, inviting Gulf states and regional players, but facing delays from Yemen conflict updates and UN mediation efforts. Recent Houthi truce extensions have boosted odds for UAE and Oman (around 40-50%), while Iran's non-committal stance weighs on broader buy-in. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions in late February could clarify invitations, potentially shifting odds if endorsements emerge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$2,447,395 Vol.
インド
3%
英国
2%
ブラジル
2%
イタリア
2%
ベルギー
1%
スウェーデン
1%
フランス
1%
フィンランド
1%
ドイツ
1%
デンマーク
1%
ノルウェー
1%
ロシア
1%
オランダ
1%
中国
1%
スイス
<1%
パレスチナ
<1%
スペイン
<1%
ウクライナ
<1%
$2,447,395 Vol.
インド
3%
英国
2%
ブラジル
2%
イタリア
2%
ベルギー
1%
スウェーデン
1%
フランス
1%
フィンランド
1%
ドイツ
1%
デンマーク
1%
ノルウェー
1%
ロシア
1%
オランダ
1%
中国
1%
スイス
<1%
パレスチナ
<1%
スペイン
<1%
ウクライナ
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward limited participation in the Board of Peace by March 31, with low probabilities assigned to major powers like the US, Russia, and China amid ongoing diplomatic hesitancy. Primary drivers include Saudi Arabia's December initiative to form the board as a neutral platform for Middle East de-escalation talks, inviting Gulf states and regional players, but facing delays from Yemen conflict updates and UN mediation efforts. Recent Houthi truce extensions have boosted odds for UAE and Oman (around 40-50%), while Iran's non-committal stance weighs on broader buy-in. Upcoming UN Security Council sessions in late February could clarify invitations, potentially shifting odds if endorsements emerge.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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