OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro has driven near-unanimous trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability for leading math AI capabilities by March 31, following its early March release that achieved top scores like 99.4% on MATH-500 and 38% on FrontierMath Tier 4—research-level problems previously unsolved by rivals. This edges out competitors such as Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, which trail by wide margins on key benchmarks amid a competitive AI landscape focused on reasoning enhancements. With resolution imminent in three days, traders see minimal risk of displacement barring an unprecedented last-minute model drop or leaderboard reevaluation from challengers like DeepSeek or xAI.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日OpenAI 99.4%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$474,182 Vol.
$474,182 Vol.

OpenAI
99%

xAI
<1%

<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

アンソロピック
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

アリババ
<1%

ムーンショット
<1%
OpenAI 99.4%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$474,182 Vol.
$474,182 Vol.

OpenAI
99%

xAI
<1%

<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

アンソロピック
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

アリババ
<1%

ムーンショット
<1%
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro has driven near-unanimous trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability for leading math AI capabilities by March 31, following its early March release that achieved top scores like 99.4% on MATH-500 and 38% on FrontierMath Tier 4—research-level problems previously unsolved by rivals. This edges out competitors such as Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, which trail by wide margins on key benchmarks amid a competitive AI landscape focused on reasoning enhancements. With resolution imminent in three days, traders see minimal risk of displacement barring an unprecedented last-minute model drop or leaderboard reevaluation from challengers like DeepSeek or xAI.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問