Trader consensus favors phrases like "paid a big price/paying a big price" at 16% implied probability in this market tracking Donald Trump's public statements, primarily Truth Social posts, from March 29 to April 4, amid the dominant U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and nationwide "No Kings" protests drawing millions on March 28-29 over the war and economic pressures. Recent catalysts include Trump's March 27 remarks at the Saudi-backed Future Investment Initiative touting the conflict as reshaping the Middle East, Iranian strikes damaging U.S. assets like an E-3 Sentry AWACS, and Houthi missile attacks widening hostilities. With a light Mar-a-Lago schedule featuring executive time and private meetings, traders anticipate responsive posts on escalation signals, disputed peace talks, or domestic unrest, alongside lower odds on "Khamenei" (5%) despite ongoing Tehran tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$481,992 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
26%
Kaitlan Collins
3%
Eat our Lunch
5%
Ethanol
3%
Embargo
10%
Finish the Job
12%
Khamenei
5%
Chuck Norris
3%
$481,992 Vol.
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
$19,937 Vol.
26%
Kaitlan Collins
$4,631 Vol.
3%
Eat our Lunch
$1,945 Vol.
5%
Ethanol
$11,836 Vol.
3%
Embargo
$8,784 Vol.
10%
Finish the Job
$3,972 Vol.
12%
Khamenei
$54,660 Vol.
5%
Chuck Norris
$9,685 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus favors phrases like "paid a big price/paying a big price" at 16% implied probability in this market tracking Donald Trump's public statements, primarily Truth Social posts, from March 29 to April 4, amid the dominant U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and nationwide "No Kings" protests drawing millions on March 28-29 over the war and economic pressures. Recent catalysts include Trump's March 27 remarks at the Saudi-backed Future Investment Initiative touting the conflict as reshaping the Middle East, Iranian strikes damaging U.S. assets like an E-3 Sentry AWACS, and Houthi missile attacks widening hostilities. With a light Mar-a-Lago schedule featuring executive time and private meetings, traders anticipate responsive posts on escalation signals, disputed peace talks, or domestic unrest, alongside lower odds on "Khamenei" (5%) despite ongoing Tehran tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
音量
$481,992終了日
Mar 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus favors phrases like "paid a big price/paying a big price" at 16% implied probability in this market tracking Donald Trump's public statements, primarily Truth Social posts, from March 29 to April 4, amid the dominant U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and nationwide "No Kings" protests drawing millions on March 28-29 over the war and economic pressures. Recent catalysts include Trump's March 27 remarks at the Saudi-backed Future Investment Initiative touting the conflict as reshaping the Middle East, Iranian strikes damaging U.S. assets like an E-3 Sentry AWACS, and Houthi missile attacks widening hostilities. With a light Mar-a-Lago schedule featuring executive time and private meetings, traders anticipate responsive posts on escalation signals, disputed peace talks, or domestic unrest, alongside lower odds on "Khamenei" (5%) despite ongoing Tehran tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
音量
$481,992終了日
Mar 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
Trader consensus favors phrases like "paid a big price/paying a big price" at 16% implied probability in this market tracking Donald Trump's public statements, primarily Truth Social posts, from March 29 to April 4, amid the dominant U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and nationwide "No Kings" protests drawing millions on March 28-29 over the war and economic pressures. Recent catalysts include Trump's March 27 remarks at the Saudi-backed Future Investment Initiative touting the conflict as reshaping the Middle East, Iranian strikes damaging U.S. assets like an E-3 Sentry AWACS, and Houthi missile attacks widening hostilities. With a light Mar-a-Lago schedule featuring executive time and private meetings, traders anticipate responsive posts on escalation signals, disputed peace talks, or domestic unrest, alongside lower odds on "Khamenei" (5%) despite ongoing Tehran tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問