Incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito's bid for a third term drives the commanding 93% trader consensus for a GOP victory in West Virginia's deep-red Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—evident in Jim Justice's 2024 landslide win and Capito's prior 43-point 2020 margin—amid a weak Democratic field headlined by little-known challenger Zachary Shrewsbury. Recent endorsements from the Gas and Oil Association of West Virginia on March 18 and the National Federation of Independent Business on March 9 have solidified Capito's primary position ahead of the May 12 contests, where she faces minor challengers like Alexander Gaaserud. Scenarios to challenge this include a bruising Republican primary, Capito health issues, or unforeseen scandal, though West Virginia's partisan lean and historical base rates make a Democratic upset improbable without a national wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
93%
民主党
$2,236 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito's bid for a third term drives the commanding 93% trader consensus for a GOP victory in West Virginia's deep-red Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—evident in Jim Justice's 2024 landslide win and Capito's prior 43-point 2020 margin—amid a weak Democratic field headlined by little-known challenger Zachary Shrewsbury. Recent endorsements from the Gas and Oil Association of West Virginia on March 18 and the National Federation of Independent Business on March 9 have solidified Capito's primary position ahead of the May 12 contests, where she faces minor challengers like Alexander Gaaserud. Scenarios to challenge this include a bruising Republican primary, Capito health issues, or unforeseen scandal, though West Virginia's partisan lean and historical base rates make a Democratic upset improbable without a national wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
音量
$2,236終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito's bid for a third term drives the commanding 93% trader consensus for a GOP victory in West Virginia's deep-red Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—evident in Jim Justice's 2024 landslide win and Capito's prior 43-point 2020 margin—amid a weak Democratic field headlined by little-known challenger Zachary Shrewsbury. Recent endorsements from the Gas and Oil Association of West Virginia on March 18 and the National Federation of Independent Business on March 9 have solidified Capito's primary position ahead of the May 12 contests, where she faces minor challengers like Alexander Gaaserud. Scenarios to challenge this include a bruising Republican primary, Capito health issues, or unforeseen scandal, though West Virginia's partisan lean and historical base rates make a Democratic upset improbable without a national wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$2,236終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito's bid for a third term drives the commanding 93% trader consensus for a GOP victory in West Virginia's deep-red Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—evident in Jim Justice's 2024 landslide win and Capito's prior 43-point 2020 margin—amid a weak Democratic field headlined by little-known challenger Zachary Shrewsbury. Recent endorsements from the Gas and Oil Association of West Virginia on March 18 and the National Federation of Independent Business on March 9 have solidified Capito's primary position ahead of the May 12 contests, where she faces minor challengers like Alexander Gaaserud. Scenarios to challenge this include a bruising Republican primary, Capito health issues, or unforeseen scandal, though West Virginia's partisan lean and historical base rates make a Democratic upset improbable without a national wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問