Trader consensus favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear negotiations and logistical barriers to seizure amid ongoing airstrikes. Indirect US-Iran talks in Oman concluded February 26 without agreement on stockpile limits, despite Iran's offer to avoid stockpiling, as mediators noted persistent divides over enrichment levels and IAEA verification access severed since June 2025. IAEA reports confirm Iran's 5,525 kg enriched uranium stockpile, including 441 kg at 60% purity—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—stored in hardened underground facilities at Natanz and Isfahan beyond airstrike reach. President Trump's March 9 statement ruled out ground troops needed for extraction, prioritizing air campaigns that degrade but cannot retrieve material, with no scheduled diplomatic summits before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$186,910 Vol.
$186,910 Vol.
2026/05/31
$186,910 Vol.
$186,910 Vol.
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear negotiations and logistical barriers to seizure amid ongoing airstrikes. Indirect US-Iran talks in Oman concluded February 26 without agreement on stockpile limits, despite Iran's offer to avoid stockpiling, as mediators noted persistent divides over enrichment levels and IAEA verification access severed since June 2025. IAEA reports confirm Iran's 5,525 kg enriched uranium stockpile, including 441 kg at 60% purity—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—stored in hardened underground facilities at Natanz and Isfahan beyond airstrike reach. President Trump's March 9 statement ruled out ground troops needed for extraction, prioritizing air campaigns that degrade but cannot retrieve material, with no scheduled diplomatic summits before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$186,910終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear negotiations and logistical barriers to seizure amid ongoing airstrikes. Indirect US-Iran talks in Oman concluded February 26 without agreement on stockpile limits, despite Iran's offer to avoid stockpiling, as mediators noted persistent divides over enrichment levels and IAEA verification access severed since June 2025. IAEA reports confirm Iran's 5,525 kg enriched uranium stockpile, including 441 kg at 60% purity—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—stored in hardened underground facilities at Natanz and Isfahan beyond airstrike reach. President Trump's March 9 statement ruled out ground troops needed for extraction, prioritizing air campaigns that degrade but cannot retrieve material, with no scheduled diplomatic summits before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$190,594終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 82.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear negotiations and logistical barriers to seizure amid ongoing airstrikes. Indirect US-Iran talks in Oman concluded February 26 without agreement on stockpile limits, despite Iran's offer to avoid stockpiling, as mediators noted persistent divides over enrichment levels and IAEA verification access severed since June 2025. IAEA reports confirm Iran's 5,525 kg enriched uranium stockpile, including 441 kg at 60% purity—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—stored in hardened underground facilities at Natanz and Isfahan beyond airstrike reach. President Trump's March 9 statement ruled out ground troops needed for extraction, prioritizing air campaigns that degrade but cannot retrieve material, with no scheduled diplomatic summits before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問