President Trump stated on April 1, 2026, that the US military campaign in Iran—now one month old and limited to airstrikes and naval actions—will conclude in two to three weeks once Tehran is prevented from rebuilding nuclear capabilities, amid stalled ceasefire talks and Iranian refusals without a full halt to operations. Over 50,000 US troops, including recent deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and elite units, are positioned in the Middle East, prompting Iranian warnings of "sharks in the Persian Gulf" and claims of five million volunteers ready for ground defense. No US boots-on-the-ground entry has occurred, but force concentrations near the Strait of Hormuz signal potential amphibious escalations targeting islands or coastal sites. Trump's national address tonight could clarify invasion intentions or de-escalation paths.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$71,523,400 Vol.
2026/03/01
3月31日
1%
4月30日
53%
12月31日
62%
$71,523,400 Vol.
3月31日
$48,496,436 Vol.
1%
4月30日
$13,365,482 Vol.
53%
12月31日
$7,632,653 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.President Trump stated on April 1, 2026, that the US military campaign in Iran—now one month old and limited to airstrikes and naval actions—will conclude in two to three weeks once Tehran is prevented from rebuilding nuclear capabilities, amid stalled ceasefire talks and Iranian refusals without a full halt to operations. Over 50,000 US troops, including recent deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and elite units, are positioned in the Middle East, prompting Iranian warnings of "sharks in the Persian Gulf" and claims of five million volunteers ready for ground defense. No US boots-on-the-ground entry has occurred, but force concentrations near the Strait of Hormuz signal potential amphibious escalations targeting islands or coastal sites. Trump's national address tonight could clarify invasion intentions or de-escalation paths.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
音量
$71,523,400マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.President Trump stated on April 1, 2026, that the US military campaign in Iran—now one month old and limited to airstrikes and naval actions—will conclude in two to three weeks once Tehran is prevented from rebuilding nuclear capabilities, amid stalled ceasefire talks and Iranian refusals without a full halt to operations. Over 50,000 US troops, including recent deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and elite units, are positioned in the Middle East, prompting Iranian warnings of "sharks in the Persian Gulf" and claims of five million volunteers ready for ground defense. No US boots-on-the-ground entry has occurred, but force concentrations near the Strait of Hormuz signal potential amphibious escalations targeting islands or coastal sites. Trump's national address tonight could clarify invasion intentions or de-escalation paths.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$71,523,400マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
President Trump stated on April 1, 2026, that the US military campaign in Iran—now one month old and limited to airstrikes and naval actions—will conclude in two to three weeks once Tehran is prevented from rebuilding nuclear capabilities, amid stalled ceasefire talks and Iranian refusals without a full halt to operations. Over 50,000 US troops, including recent deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and elite units, are positioned in the Middle East, prompting Iranian warnings of "sharks in the Persian Gulf" and claims of five million volunteers ready for ground defense. No US boots-on-the-ground entry has occurred, but force concentrations near the Strait of Hormuz signal potential amphibious escalations targeting islands or coastal sites. Trump's national address tonight could clarify invasion intentions or de-escalation paths.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問