Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97.4% implied probability for no Stripe IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the fintech giant's February 2026 tender offer that valued it at $159 billion—a 70% year-over-year surge—while processing $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume, up 34%. Co-founder John Collison explicitly stated no imminent public listing plans, underscoring ample private liquidity via secondary sales that closed an employee tender window on April 1, reducing incentives for near-term capitalization through an IPO. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects Stripe's competitive moat in payments infrastructure amid favorable private funding dynamics. Realistic challenges include an abrupt S-1 filing amid market euphoria or eroding secondary market access, though no such catalysts have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 97.4%
1,200〜1,400億ドル 1.3%
800億ドル未満 <1%
800〜1000億ドル <1%
$121,341 Vol.
$121,341 Vol.
2026/06/30
800億ドル未満
1%
800〜1000億ドル
1%
1,000億～1,200億ドル
<1%
1,200〜1,400億ドル
1%
1,400億ドル以上
<1%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
97%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 97.4%
1,200〜1,400億ドル 1.3%
800億ドル未満 <1%
800〜1000億ドル <1%
$121,341 Vol.
$121,341 Vol.
2026/06/30
800億ドル未満
$67,362 Vol.
1%
800〜1000億ドル
$11,673 Vol.
1%
1,000億～1,200億ドル
$6,460 Vol.
<1%
1,200〜1,400億ドル
$14,675 Vol.
1%
1,400億ドル以上
$9,308 Vol.
<1%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
$11,863 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97.4% implied probability for no Stripe IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the fintech giant's February 2026 tender offer that valued it at $159 billion—a 70% year-over-year surge—while processing $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume, up 34%. Co-founder John Collison explicitly stated no imminent public listing plans, underscoring ample private liquidity via secondary sales that closed an employee tender window on April 1, reducing incentives for near-term capitalization through an IPO. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects Stripe's competitive moat in payments infrastructure amid favorable private funding dynamics. Realistic challenges include an abrupt S-1 filing amid market euphoria or eroding secondary market access, though no such catalysts have emerged.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ET
音量
$121,341終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97.4% implied probability for no Stripe IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the fintech giant's February 2026 tender offer that valued it at $159 billion—a 70% year-over-year surge—while processing $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume, up 34%. Co-founder John Collison explicitly stated no imminent public listing plans, underscoring ample private liquidity via secondary sales that closed an employee tender window on April 1, reducing incentives for near-term capitalization through an IPO. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects Stripe's competitive moat in payments infrastructure amid favorable private funding dynamics. Realistic challenges include an abrupt S-1 filing amid market euphoria or eroding secondary market access, though no such catalysts have emerged.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$121,341終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97.4% implied probability for no Stripe IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the fintech giant's February 2026 tender offer that valued it at $159 billion—a 70% year-over-year surge—while processing $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume, up 34%. Co-founder John Collison explicitly stated no imminent public listing plans, underscoring ample private liquidity via secondary sales that closed an employee tender window on April 1, reducing incentives for near-term capitalization through an IPO. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects Stripe's competitive moat in payments infrastructure amid favorable private funding dynamics. Realistic challenges include an abrupt S-1 filing amid market euphoria or eroding secondary market access, though no such catalysts have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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