United Russia's 95.1% implied probability as State Duma election winner reflects its structural dominance as the ruling party backed by President Putin, with recent March polls showing 30-55% party-list support across FOM and WCIOM surveys, far ahead of KPRF at 8-12% and others below 10%. This positioning persists despite leaked internal documents revealing candidate vetting processes and party admissions of challenges in up to 30 regions, where it targets 55% on lists and 195 of 225 single-member districts for September 20 voting. Opposition efforts, including new party formations by exiles like Ilya Yashin, remain fragmented amid registration hurdles. Scenarios to shift odds include major war developments, turnout surges in competitive areas like Novosibirsk or St. Petersburg, or verified electoral irregularities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日統一ロシア（ER） 95.1%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF） 1.6%
市民プラットフォーム（GP） 1.2%
新しい人々（NL） <1%
$891,730 Vol.
$891,730 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
統一ロシア（ER）
95%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF）
2%
市民プラットフォーム（GP）
1%
新しい人々（NL）
1%
公正ロシア・祖国のための真実（SRZP）
1%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR）
1%
ロジナ
<1%
統一ロシア（ER） 95.1%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF） 1.6%
市民プラットフォーム（GP） 1.2%
新しい人々（NL） <1%
$891,730 Vol.
$891,730 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
統一ロシア（ER）
$469,634 Vol.
95%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF）
$76,380 Vol.
2%
市民プラットフォーム（GP）
$76,298 Vol.
1%
新しい人々（NL）
$34,430 Vol.
1%
公正ロシア・祖国のための真実（SRZP）
$128,715 Vol.
1%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR）
$31,464 Vol.
1%
ロジナ
$74,810 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95.1% implied probability as State Duma election winner reflects its structural dominance as the ruling party backed by President Putin, with recent March polls showing 30-55% party-list support across FOM and WCIOM surveys, far ahead of KPRF at 8-12% and others below 10%. This positioning persists despite leaked internal documents revealing candidate vetting processes and party admissions of challenges in up to 30 regions, where it targets 55% on lists and 195 of 225 single-member districts for September 20 voting. Opposition efforts, including new party formations by exiles like Ilya Yashin, remain fragmented amid registration hurdles. Scenarios to shift odds include major war developments, turnout surges in competitive areas like Novosibirsk or St. Petersburg, or verified electoral irregularities.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
音量
$891,730終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95.1% implied probability as State Duma election winner reflects its structural dominance as the ruling party backed by President Putin, with recent March polls showing 30-55% party-list support across FOM and WCIOM surveys, far ahead of KPRF at 8-12% and others below 10%. This positioning persists despite leaked internal documents revealing candidate vetting processes and party admissions of challenges in up to 30 regions, where it targets 55% on lists and 195 of 225 single-member districts for September 20 voting. Opposition efforts, including new party formations by exiles like Ilya Yashin, remain fragmented amid registration hurdles. Scenarios to shift odds include major war developments, turnout surges in competitive areas like Novosibirsk or St. Petersburg, or verified electoral irregularities.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
音量
$891,730終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's 95.1% implied probability as State Duma election winner reflects its structural dominance as the ruling party backed by President Putin, with recent March polls showing 30-55% party-list support across FOM and WCIOM surveys, far ahead of KPRF at 8-12% and others below 10%. This positioning persists despite leaked internal documents revealing candidate vetting processes and party admissions of challenges in up to 30 regions, where it targets 55% on lists and 195 of 225 single-member districts for September 20 voting. Opposition efforts, including new party formations by exiles like Ilya Yashin, remain fragmented amid registration hurdles. Scenarios to shift odds include major war developments, turnout surges in competitive areas like Novosibirsk or St. Petersburg, or verified electoral irregularities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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