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政治·プライマリ

NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者

Market icon
政治·プライマリ

NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者

リッチー・トーレス 81%

マイケル・ブレイク 16%

ダローニー・ネモリン 2.3%

アマンダ・セプティモ 1.1%

Polymarket

$10,852 Vol.

リッチー・トーレス 81%

マイケル・ブレイク 16%

ダローニー・ネモリン 2.3%

アマンダ・セプティモ 1.1%

Polymarket

$10,852 Vol.

リッチー・トーレス

$0 Vol.

81%

マイケル・ブレイク

$0 Vol.

16%

ダローニー・ネモリン

$4,569 Vol.

2%

アマンダ・セプティモ

$6,283 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres holds a commanding trader consensus at 81% implied probability for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin's campaign suspension announced March 26, which consolidates support amid her prior 2.3% odds. Torres benefits from incumbency in the heavily Democratic Bronx district, recent high-profile endorsements including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and presumed fundraising edge over challengers. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake trails at 16.5%, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance despite his own reported inconsistencies on related issues like BDS; Amanda Septimo's January health-related withdrawal further narrows the field in this closed primary.

Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres holds a commanding trader consensus at 81% implied probability for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin's campaign suspension announced March 26, which consolidates support amid her prior 2.3% odds. Torres benefits from incumbency in the heavily Democratic Bronx district, recent high-profile endorsements including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and presumed fundraising edge over challengers. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake trails at 16.5%, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance despite his own reported inconsistencies on related issues like BDS; Amanda Septimo's January health-related withdrawal further narrows the field in this closed primary.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres holds a commanding trader consensus at 81% implied probability for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin's campaign suspension announced March 26, which consolidates support amid her prior 2.3% odds. Torres benefits from incumbency in the heavily Democratic Bronx district, recent high-profile endorsements including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and presumed fundraising edge over challengers. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake trails at 16.5%, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance despite his own reported inconsistencies on related issues like BDS; Amanda Septimo's January health-related withdrawal further narrows the field in this closed primary.

Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres holds a commanding trader consensus at 81% implied probability for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin's campaign suspension announced March 26, which consolidates support amid her prior 2.3% odds. Torres benefits from incumbency in the heavily Democratic Bronx district, recent high-profile endorsements including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and presumed fundraising edge over challengers. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake trails at 16.5%, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance despite his own reported inconsistencies on related issues like BDS; Amanda Septimo's January health-related withdrawal further narrows the field in this closed primary.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「リッチー・トーレス」で81%、次いで「マイケル・ブレイク」が17%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、81¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に81%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」は$10.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 25, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「リッチー・トーレス」で81%であり、市場がこの結果に81%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「マイケル・ブレイク」で17%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「NY -15民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。