Trader consensus favors Democrats at 79% implied probability to win New Hampshire's open U.S. Senate seat in November 2026, following incumbent Jeanne Shaheen's retirement announcement last year, driven by recent polls showing Rep. Chris Pappas leading as the Democratic frontrunner. A poll released five days ago has Pappas ahead of Republican contenders, including former Sen. John E. Sununu—who entered the race late 2025 with President Trump's endorsement—by double digits, reflecting Pappas's popularity and New Hampshire's track record of electing Democrats to the Senate despite its swing-state status. An Emerson survey three days ago highlighted Democratic upside in the matchup, with primaries set for September 8 potentially solidifying nominees amid national midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$15,683 Vol.
$15,683 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
79%
共和党
18%
$15,683 Vol.
$15,683 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$10,559 Vol.
79%
共和党
$5,124 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors Democrats at 79% implied probability to win New Hampshire's open U.S. Senate seat in November 2026, following incumbent Jeanne Shaheen's retirement announcement last year, driven by recent polls showing Rep. Chris Pappas leading as the Democratic frontrunner. A poll released five days ago has Pappas ahead of Republican contenders, including former Sen. John E. Sununu—who entered the race late 2025 with President Trump's endorsement—by double digits, reflecting Pappas's popularity and New Hampshire's track record of electing Democrats to the Senate despite its swing-state status. An Emerson survey three days ago highlighted Democratic upside in the matchup, with primaries set for September 8 potentially solidifying nominees amid national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$15,683終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors Democrats at 79% implied probability to win New Hampshire's open U.S. Senate seat in November 2026, following incumbent Jeanne Shaheen's retirement announcement last year, driven by recent polls showing Rep. Chris Pappas leading as the Democratic frontrunner. A poll released five days ago has Pappas ahead of Republican contenders, including former Sen. John E. Sununu—who entered the race late 2025 with President Trump's endorsement—by double digits, reflecting Pappas's popularity and New Hampshire's track record of electing Democrats to the Senate despite its swing-state status. An Emerson survey three days ago highlighted Democratic upside in the matchup, with primaries set for September 8 potentially solidifying nominees amid national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$15,683終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Democrats at 79% implied probability to win New Hampshire's open U.S. Senate seat in November 2026, following incumbent Jeanne Shaheen's retirement announcement last year, driven by recent polls showing Rep. Chris Pappas leading as the Democratic frontrunner. A poll released five days ago has Pappas ahead of Republican contenders, including former Sen. John E. Sununu—who entered the race late 2025 with President Trump's endorsement—by double digits, reflecting Pappas's popularity and New Hampshire's track record of electing Democrats to the Senate despite its swing-state status. An Emerson survey three days ago highlighted Democratic upside in the matchup, with primaries set for September 8 potentially solidifying nominees amid national midterm dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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