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選挙·11月4日選挙

MO -08下院選挙の勝者

Market icon
選挙·11月4日選挙

MO -08下院選挙の勝者

$21,867 Vol.

Polymarket

$21,867 Vol.

共和党

$11,748 Vol.

94%

民主党

$10,119 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party at 93.5% to retain Missouri's 8th Congressional District, anchored by incumbent Jason Smith's entrenched position as Ways and Means Committee chair in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+27—the seventh most Republican nationwide. Smith recently filed for reelection on March 4 amid strong historical margins exceeding 76% in recent cycles, while the Democratic primary features a fragmented field of four candidates: Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, with minimal fundraising. The August 4 primary looms, but ratings from Cook Political Report and others deem the seat Solid Republican. Upsets would require a GOP primary shock, major scandal or health issue for Smith, or an unprecedented national wave.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party at 93.5% to retain Missouri's 8th Congressional District, anchored by incumbent Jason Smith's entrenched position as Ways and Means Committee chair in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+27—the seventh most Republican nationwide. Smith recently filed for reelection on March 4 amid strong historical margins exceeding 76% in recent cycles, while the Democratic primary features a fragmented field of four candidates: Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, with minimal fundraising. The August 4 primary looms, but ratings from Cook Political Report and others deem the seat Solid Republican. Upsets would require a GOP primary shock, major scandal or health issue for Smith, or an unprecedented national wave.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party at 93.5% to retain Missouri's 8th Congressional District, anchored by incumbent Jason Smith's entrenched position as Ways and Means Committee chair in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+27—the seventh most Republican nationwide. Smith recently filed for reelection on March 4 amid strong historical margins exceeding 76% in recent cycles, while the Democratic primary features a fragmented field of four candidates: Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, with minimal fundraising. The August 4 primary looms, but ratings from Cook Political Report and others deem the seat Solid Republican. Upsets would require a GOP primary shock, major scandal or health issue for Smith, or an unprecedented national wave.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Republican Party at 93.5% to retain Missouri's 8th Congressional District, anchored by incumbent Jason Smith's entrenched position as Ways and Means Committee chair in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+27—the seventh most Republican nationwide. Smith recently filed for reelection on March 4 amid strong historical margins exceeding 76% in recent cycles, while the Democratic primary features a fragmented field of four candidates: Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, and Christopher Reichard, with minimal fundraising. The August 4 primary looms, but ratings from Cook Political Report and others deem the seat Solid Republican. Upsets would require a GOP primary shock, major scandal or health issue for Smith, or an unprecedented national wave.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「MO -08下院選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「共和党」で94%、次いで「民主党」が6%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、94¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に94%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「MO -08下院選挙の勝者」は$21.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 28, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「MO -08下院選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「MO -08下院選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「共和党」で94%であり、市場がこの結果に94%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「民主党」で6%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「MO -08下院選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。