Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Democrats at 89% to hold it, reflecting the state's Democratic lean—evident in no Republican Senate win since 2002—and early polling edges. February Emerson College surveys show Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Michele Tafoya 47%-41% and Rep. Angie Craig ahead 47%-40%, with Democrats dominating fundraising and endorsements amid a fragmented GOP primary field including Royce White and David Hann. Forecasters rate it Likely Democratic, buoyed by Minnesota's history of electing Democrats statewide, though primaries on August 11 and national midterm dynamics could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$15,255 Vol.
$15,255 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
89%
共和党
12%
$15,255 Vol.
$15,255 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$11,272 Vol.
89%
共和党
$3,983 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Democrats at 89% to hold it, reflecting the state's Democratic lean—evident in no Republican Senate win since 2002—and early polling edges. February Emerson College surveys show Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Michele Tafoya 47%-41% and Rep. Angie Craig ahead 47%-40%, with Democrats dominating fundraising and endorsements amid a fragmented GOP primary field including Royce White and David Hann. Forecasters rate it Likely Democratic, buoyed by Minnesota's history of electing Democrats statewide, though primaries on August 11 and national midterm dynamics could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
音量
$15,255終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Democrats at 89% to hold it, reflecting the state's Democratic lean—evident in no Republican Senate win since 2002—and early polling edges. February Emerson College surveys show Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Michele Tafoya 47%-41% and Rep. Angie Craig ahead 47%-40%, with Democrats dominating fundraising and endorsements amid a fragmented GOP primary field including Royce White and David Hann. Forecasters rate it Likely Democratic, buoyed by Minnesota's history of electing Democrats statewide, though primaries on August 11 and national midterm dynamics could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$15,255終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Democrats at 89% to hold it, reflecting the state's Democratic lean—evident in no Republican Senate win since 2002—and early polling edges. February Emerson College surveys show Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Michele Tafoya 47%-41% and Rep. Angie Craig ahead 47%-40%, with Democrats dominating fundraising and endorsements amid a fragmented GOP primary field including Royce White and David Hann. Forecasters rate it Likely Democratic, buoyed by Minnesota's history of electing Democrats statewide, though primaries on August 11 and national midterm dynamics could shift odds before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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