Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.9% that the Border Patrol agent and CBP officer involved in the January 24 fatal shooting of Alex Pretti during Minneapolis immigration operations will neither be fired nor resign by March 31, driven by the absence of disciplinary announcements over two months later. The agents—Jesus Ochoa and Raymundo Gutierrez—remain on standard administrative leave pending DHS internal review and a potential DOJ criminal probe, with initial agency statements framing the encounter as self-defense against an armed individual resisting during Operation Metro Surge. No recent catalysts like adverse investigation findings or public pressure have emerged to prompt action, aligning with historical patterns where such officer-involved shootings take 6–12 months to resolve. Realistic shifts could involve late-breaking misconduct revelations or heightened political scrutiny before the tight deadline.