US-Israeli airstrikes under Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury continue targeting Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and military sites, with recent hits near Mashhad on March 25-26 marking the northeastern-most actions and over 600 missile strikes reported by the IDF since late February. The White House threatened further military action on March 25 absent a deal to end hostilities, while Iranian officials rejected negotiations, demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals explain trader consensus at 95% for military action through March 31, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on sustained operations. A surprise ceasefire, diplomatic accord, or regime internal collapse could challenge this outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月31日までの軍事行動 96%
3月31日 1.2%
3月30日 <1%
3月29日 <1%
$2,724,077 Vol.
$2,724,077 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月29日
1%
3月30日
1%
3月31日
1%
3月31日までの軍事行動
96%
3月31日までの軍事行動 96%
3月31日 1.2%
3月30日 <1%
3月29日 <1%
$2,724,077 Vol.
$2,724,077 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月29日
$299,961 Vol.
1%
3月30日
$285,451 Vol.
1%
3月31日
$413,432 Vol.
1%
3月31日までの軍事行動
$577,430 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes under Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury continue targeting Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and military sites, with recent hits near Mashhad on March 25-26 marking the northeastern-most actions and over 600 missile strikes reported by the IDF since late February. The White House threatened further military action on March 25 absent a deal to end hostilities, while Iranian officials rejected negotiations, demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals explain trader consensus at 95% for military action through March 31, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on sustained operations. A surprise ceasefire, diplomatic accord, or regime internal collapse could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$2,724,077終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes under Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury continue targeting Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and military sites, with recent hits near Mashhad on March 25-26 marking the northeastern-most actions and over 600 missile strikes reported by the IDF since late February. The White House threatened further military action on March 25 absent a deal to end hostilities, while Iranian officials rejected negotiations, demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals explain trader consensus at 95% for military action through March 31, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on sustained operations. A surprise ceasefire, diplomatic accord, or regime internal collapse could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,724,077終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
US-Israeli airstrikes under Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury continue targeting Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and military sites, with recent hits near Mashhad on March 25-26 marking the northeastern-most actions and over 600 missile strikes reported by the IDF since late February. The White House threatened further military action on March 25 absent a deal to end hostilities, while Iranian officials rejected negotiations, demanding reparations and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty. This persistent escalation and lack of de-escalation signals explain trader consensus at 95% for military action through March 31, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on sustained operations. A surprise ceasefire, diplomatic accord, or regime internal collapse could challenge this outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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