US and Israeli forces have sustained airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities, command centers, and defense infrastructure through March 28, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities amid the war's first month since late February. Recent escalations include USS Tripoli's deployment of 3,500 troops on March 29 and ongoing Iranian missile barrages prompting Israeli sirens, with no verified ceasefire signals despite Iran's review of a US 15-point diplomatic proposal presented March 24. Tehran rejects negotiations under fire, reinforcing trader consensus at 98.9% implied probability for military action continuing through March 31. Only a sudden de-escalation agreement or unilateral halt could realistically shift this, though historical patterns in such conflicts show persistence absent major concessions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$2,969,248 Vol.
$2,969,248 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月31日
1%
3月31日までの軍事行動
99%
$2,969,248 Vol.
$2,969,248 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月31日
$422,419 Vol.
1%
3月31日までの軍事行動
$744,291 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have sustained airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities, command centers, and defense infrastructure through March 28, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities amid the war's first month since late February. Recent escalations include USS Tripoli's deployment of 3,500 troops on March 29 and ongoing Iranian missile barrages prompting Israeli sirens, with no verified ceasefire signals despite Iran's review of a US 15-point diplomatic proposal presented March 24. Tehran rejects negotiations under fire, reinforcing trader consensus at 98.9% implied probability for military action continuing through March 31. Only a sudden de-escalation agreement or unilateral halt could realistically shift this, though historical patterns in such conflicts show persistence absent major concessions.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$2,969,248終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces have sustained airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities, command centers, and defense infrastructure through March 28, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities amid the war's first month since late February. Recent escalations include USS Tripoli's deployment of 3,500 troops on March 29 and ongoing Iranian missile barrages prompting Israeli sirens, with no verified ceasefire signals despite Iran's review of a US 15-point diplomatic proposal presented March 24. Tehran rejects negotiations under fire, reinforcing trader consensus at 98.9% implied probability for military action continuing through March 31. Only a sudden de-escalation agreement or unilateral halt could realistically shift this, though historical patterns in such conflicts show persistence absent major concessions.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,969,248終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
US and Israeli forces have sustained airstrikes on Iranian missile production facilities, command centers, and defense infrastructure through March 28, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities amid the war's first month since late February. Recent escalations include USS Tripoli's deployment of 3,500 troops on March 29 and ongoing Iranian missile barrages prompting Israeli sirens, with no verified ceasefire signals despite Iran's review of a US 15-point diplomatic proposal presented March 24. Tehran rejects negotiations under fire, reinforcing trader consensus at 98.9% implied probability for military action continuing through March 31. Only a sudden de-escalation agreement or unilateral halt could realistically shift this, though historical patterns in such conflicts show persistence absent major concessions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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