US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28 following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, continue unabated with recent hits on Bushehr airbase and reports of over 300 US troops wounded in Iranian counterstrikes as of March 27. President Trump's extension of a pause on energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, coupled with Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan, signals no imminent de-escalation amid multidomain exchanges including missiles, cyberattacks, and proxy actions. Trader consensus at 95% for action persisting through March 31 reflects this sustained escalation and lack of diplomatic progress, though a surprise bilateral agreement, major Iranian capitulation, or unilateral US halt could shift odds dramatically.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月31日までの軍事行動 95%
3月31日 1.3%
3月30日 1.0%
3月29日 <1%
$2,726,173 Vol.
$2,726,173 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月29日
<1%
3月30日
1%
3月31日
1%
3月31日までの軍事行動
95%
3月31日までの軍事行動 95%
3月31日 1.3%
3月30日 1.0%
3月29日 <1%
$2,726,173 Vol.
$2,726,173 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3月29日
$300,062 Vol.
<1%
3月30日
$286,411 Vol.
1%
3月31日
$413,523 Vol.
1%
3月31日までの軍事行動
$578,290 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28 following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, continue unabated with recent hits on Bushehr airbase and reports of over 300 US troops wounded in Iranian counterstrikes as of March 27. President Trump's extension of a pause on energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, coupled with Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan, signals no imminent de-escalation amid multidomain exchanges including missiles, cyberattacks, and proxy actions. Trader consensus at 95% for action persisting through March 31 reflects this sustained escalation and lack of diplomatic progress, though a surprise bilateral agreement, major Iranian capitulation, or unilateral US halt could shift odds dramatically.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$2,726,173終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28 following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, continue unabated with recent hits on Bushehr airbase and reports of over 300 US troops wounded in Iranian counterstrikes as of March 27. President Trump's extension of a pause on energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, coupled with Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan, signals no imminent de-escalation amid multidomain exchanges including missiles, cyberattacks, and proxy actions. Trader consensus at 95% for action persisting through March 31 reflects this sustained escalation and lack of diplomatic progress, though a surprise bilateral agreement, major Iranian capitulation, or unilateral US halt could shift odds dramatically.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,726,173終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
US-Israel airstrikes against Iran, ongoing since February 28 following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, continue unabated with recent hits on Bushehr airbase and reports of over 300 US troops wounded in Iranian counterstrikes as of March 27. President Trump's extension of a pause on energy infrastructure strikes until April 6, coupled with Iran's rejection of a US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan, signals no imminent de-escalation amid multidomain exchanges including missiles, cyberattacks, and proxy actions. Trader consensus at 95% for action persisting through March 31 reflects this sustained escalation and lack of diplomatic progress, though a surprise bilateral agreement, major Iranian capitulation, or unilateral US halt could shift odds dramatically.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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