Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro will not be exiled to Russia by March 31, driven by his ongoing detention in a U.S. facility since U.S. forces captured him on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve. Maduro faces narco-terrorism charges in New York, with a recent March 26 court hearing where a judge signaled no dismissal amid disputes over legal fees, solidifying his custody status over two months later. Earlier pre-capture offers of asylum in Russia were rejected, and no diplomatic developments indicate transfer. With the deadline tomorrow, only an extraordinary last-minute plea deal, extradition reversal, or high-level intervention could shift outcomes, though institutional and legal barriers make this improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$170,614 Vol.
$170,614 Vol.
はい
$170,614 Vol.
$170,614 Vol.
Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Dec 11, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period.
Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there.
Visits or trips to Russia will not count.
Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro will not be exiled to Russia by March 31, driven by his ongoing detention in a U.S. facility since U.S. forces captured him on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve. Maduro faces narco-terrorism charges in New York, with a recent March 26 court hearing where a judge signaled no dismissal amid disputes over legal fees, solidifying his custody status over two months later. Earlier pre-capture offers of asylum in Russia were rejected, and no diplomatic developments indicate transfer. With the deadline tomorrow, only an extraordinary last-minute plea deal, extradition reversal, or high-level intervention could shift outcomes, though institutional and legal barriers make this improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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