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政治·トランプ

マドゥロ大統領は3月31日までにロシアに亡命しましたか？

Market icon
政治·トランプ

マドゥロ大統領は3月31日までにロシアに亡命しましたか？

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$170,614 Vol.

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$170,614 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period. Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there. Visits or trips to Russia will not count. Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro will not be exiled to Russia by March 31, driven by his ongoing detention in a U.S. facility since U.S. forces captured him on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve. Maduro faces narco-terrorism charges in New York, with a recent March 26 court hearing where a judge signaled no dismissal amid disputes over legal fees, solidifying his custody status over two months later. Earlier pre-capture offers of asylum in Russia were rejected, and no diplomatic developments indicate transfer. With the deadline tomorrow, only an extraordinary last-minute plea deal, extradition reversal, or high-level intervention could shift outcomes, though institutional and legal barriers make this improbable.

Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro will not be exiled to Russia by March 31, driven by his ongoing detention in a U.S. facility since U.S. forces captured him on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve. Maduro faces narco-terrorism charges in New York, with a recent March 26 court hearing where a judge signaled no dismissal amid disputes over legal fees, solidifying his custody status over two months later. Earlier pre-capture offers of asylum in Russia were rejected, and no diplomatic developments indicate transfer. With the deadline tomorrow, only an extraordinary last-minute plea deal, extradition reversal, or high-level intervention could shift outcomes, though institutional and legal barriers make this improbable.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period. Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there. Visits or trips to Russia will not count. Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro will not be exiled to Russia by March 31, driven by his ongoing detention in a U.S. facility since U.S. forces captured him on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve. Maduro faces narco-terrorism charges in New York, with a recent March 26 court hearing where a judge signaled no dismissal amid disputes over legal fees, solidifying his custody status over two months later. Earlier pre-capture offers of asylum in Russia were rejected, and no diplomatic developments indicate transfer. With the deadline tomorrow, only an extraordinary last-minute plea deal, extradition reversal, or high-level intervention could shift outcomes, though institutional and legal barriers make this improbable.

Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro will not be exiled to Russia by March 31, driven by his ongoing detention in a U.S. facility since U.S. forces captured him on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve. Maduro faces narco-terrorism charges in New York, with a recent March 26 court hearing where a judge signaled no dismissal amid disputes over legal fees, solidifying his custody status over two months later. Earlier pre-capture offers of asylum in Russia were rejected, and no diplomatic developments indicate transfer. With the deadline tomorrow, only an extraordinary last-minute plea deal, extradition reversal, or high-level intervention could shift outcomes, though institutional and legal barriers make this improbable.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「マドゥロ大統領は3月31日までにロシアに亡命しましたか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「マドゥロは3月31日までにロシアに追放されるか？」で0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「マドゥロ大統領は3月31日までにロシアに亡命しましたか？」は$170.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 11, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「マドゥロ大統領は3月31日までにロシアに亡命しましたか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「マドゥロ大統領は3月31日までにロシアに亡命しましたか？」の現在のリーダーは「マドゥロは3月31日までにロシアに追放されるか？」でわずか0%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「マドゥロ大統領は3月31日までにロシアに亡命しましたか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。