US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and leadership—including the navy chief and national security figures—have intensified over the past week, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israeli industrial zones and Houthi attacks on Israel. President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, offered five days ago via mediators like Pakistan and Oman, signals diplomatic de-escalation efforts, with Trump stating a deal could come soon amid reports of paused strikes and troop surges. Ongoing hostilities, vows of retaliation, and overcrowding in Iranian hospitals underscore uncertainty, while trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by year-end through negotiations, though shorter-term deadlines face barriers from unresolved escalations and proxy actions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$8,485,825 Vol.
Mar 15, 2026
3月31日
1%
4月15日
15%
4月7日
4%
4月30日
26%
5月15日
38%
6月30日
65%
12月31日
80%
$8,485,825 Vol.
3月31日
$4,349,937 Vol.
1%
4月15日
$963,433 Vol.
15%
4月7日
$144,542 Vol.
4%
4月30日
$732,016 Vol.
26%
5月15日
$1,221,285 Vol.
38%
6月30日
$845,012 Vol.
65%
12月31日
$229,599 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and leadership—including the navy chief and national security figures—have intensified over the past week, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israeli industrial zones and Houthi attacks on Israel. President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, offered five days ago via mediators like Pakistan and Oman, signals diplomatic de-escalation efforts, with Trump stating a deal could come soon amid reports of paused strikes and troop surges. Ongoing hostilities, vows of retaliation, and overcrowding in Iranian hospitals underscore uncertainty, while trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by year-end through negotiations, though shorter-term deadlines face barriers from unresolved escalations and proxy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
音量
$8,485,825終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and leadership—including the navy chief and national security figures—have intensified over the past week, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israeli industrial zones and Houthi attacks on Israel. President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, offered five days ago via mediators like Pakistan and Oman, signals diplomatic de-escalation efforts, with Trump stating a deal could come soon amid reports of paused strikes and troop surges. Ongoing hostilities, vows of retaliation, and overcrowding in Iranian hospitals underscore uncertainty, while trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by year-end through negotiations, though shorter-term deadlines face barriers from unresolved escalations and proxy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
音量
$8,485,825終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and leadership—including the navy chief and national security figures—have intensified over the past week, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israeli industrial zones and Houthi attacks on Israel. President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, offered five days ago via mediators like Pakistan and Oman, signals diplomatic de-escalation efforts, with Trump stating a deal could come soon amid reports of paused strikes and troop surges. Ongoing hostilities, vows of retaliation, and overcrowding in Iranian hospitals underscore uncertainty, while trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by year-end through negotiations, though shorter-term deadlines face barriers from unresolved escalations and proxy actions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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