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世界·中東

イランxイスラエル/米国の紛争は...で終わるのですか？

Market icon
世界·中東

イランxイスラエル/米国の紛争は...で終わるのですか？

$8,446,661 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$8,446,661 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$4,347,512 Vol.

1%

4月15日

$957,639 Vol.

15%

4月7日

$142,381 Vol.

4%

4月30日

$729,686 Vol.

26%

5月15日

$1,219,179 Vol.

38%

6月30日

$829,066 Vol.

60%

12月31日

$221,197 Vol.

80%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.One month into the US-Israel air campaign—Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury—triggered by February 28 strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the conflict persists with mutual airstrikes and missile barrages. The IDF reported on March 29 that its strikes on Iran's missile production, nuclear sites, and launchers (330 of 470 destroyed) are nearly complete, having degraded over two-thirds of Tehran's missile stockpile and forcing smaller Iranian salvos at Israel. Yemen's Houthis escalated March 27-28 with their first direct attacks on Israel, while Hezbollah intensifies northern rocket fire. US deployments exceed 3,500 troops amid invasion planning rumors, as Trump's envoy pursues talks potentially this week before an April 6 deadline, though no de-escalation signals emerge.

One month into the US-Israel air campaign—Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury—triggered by February 28 strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the conflict persists with mutual airstrikes and missile barrages. The IDF reported on March 29 that its strikes on Iran's missile production, nuclear sites, and launchers (330 of 470 destroyed) are nearly complete, having degraded over two-thirds of Tehran's missile stockpile and forcing smaller Iranian salvos at Israel. Yemen's Houthis escalated March 27-28 with their first direct attacks on Israel, while Hezbollah intensifies northern rocket fire. US deployments exceed 3,500 troops amid invasion planning rumors, as Trump's envoy pursues talks potentially this week before an April 6 deadline, though no de-escalation signals emerge.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.One month into the US-Israel air campaign—Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury—triggered by February 28 strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the conflict persists with mutual airstrikes and missile barrages. The IDF reported on March 29 that its strikes on Iran's missile production, nuclear sites, and launchers (330 of 470 destroyed) are nearly complete, having degraded over two-thirds of Tehran's missile stockpile and forcing smaller Iranian salvos at Israel. Yemen's Houthis escalated March 27-28 with their first direct attacks on Israel, while Hezbollah intensifies northern rocket fire. US deployments exceed 3,500 troops amid invasion planning rumors, as Trump's envoy pursues talks potentially this week before an April 6 deadline, though no de-escalation signals emerge.

One month into the US-Israel air campaign—Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury—triggered by February 28 strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the conflict persists with mutual airstrikes and missile barrages. The IDF reported on March 29 that its strikes on Iran's missile production, nuclear sites, and launchers (330 of 470 destroyed) are nearly complete, having degraded over two-thirds of Tehran's missile stockpile and forcing smaller Iranian salvos at Israel. Yemen's Houthis escalated March 27-28 with their first direct attacks on Israel, while Hezbollah intensifies northern rocket fire. US deployments exceed 3,500 troops amid invasion planning rumors, as Trump's envoy pursues talks potentially this week before an April 6 deadline, though no de-escalation signals emerge.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「イランxイスラエル/米国の紛争は...で終わるのですか？」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で80%、次いで「6月30日」が60%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、80¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に80%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イランxイスラエル/米国の紛争は...で終わるのですか？」は$8.4 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 28, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イランxイスラエル/米国の紛争は...で終わるのですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「イランxイスラエル/米国の紛争は...で終わるのですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で80%であり、市場がこの結果に80%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「6月30日」で60%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イランxイスラエル/米国の紛争は...で終わるのですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。