Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 56% implied probability, with 14 at 30%, reflecting March 2026's record-breaking 17 Falcon 9 missions—primarily Starlink deployments and the Transporter-16 rideshare—that showcased unprecedented booster reuse (up to 34 flights) and fueled expectations for sustained high cadence. Early April's firm manifest includes Starlink Group 10-58 today from Cape Canaveral, more Starlinks April 4-13 from Vandenberg and Florida, plus Cygnus NG-24 on April 8, but traders anticipate 7-10 additional slots amid Starlink expansion and potential GPS III or Falcon Heavy additions. Starship Flight 12 (NET late April) adds upside risk, though weather, FAA approvals, and anomaly resolutions could cap totals below 15, tempering extremes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日13 56%
14 31%
15 16%
16 5.6%
$16,092 Vol.
$16,092 Vol.
≤11
2%
12
3%
13
56%
14
31%
15
16%
16
6%
17 or more
1%
13 56%
14 31%
15 16%
16 5.6%
$16,092 Vol.
$16,092 Vol.
≤11
2%
12
3%
13
56%
14
31%
15
16%
16
6%
17 or more
1%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 56% implied probability, with 14 at 30%, reflecting March 2026's record-breaking 17 Falcon 9 missions—primarily Starlink deployments and the Transporter-16 rideshare—that showcased unprecedented booster reuse (up to 34 flights) and fueled expectations for sustained high cadence. Early April's firm manifest includes Starlink Group 10-58 today from Cape Canaveral, more Starlinks April 4-13 from Vandenberg and Florida, plus Cygnus NG-24 on April 8, but traders anticipate 7-10 additional slots amid Starlink expansion and potential GPS III or Falcon Heavy additions. Starship Flight 12 (NET late April) adds upside risk, though weather, FAA approvals, and anomaly resolutions could cap totals below 15, tempering extremes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問