Official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—recorded a midday peak of 17°C today, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. Cool northerly winds and partial cloud cover suppressed further warming, consistent with early April climatology where historical highs average around 18°C but vary with frontal passages. Model forecasts from yesterday had hinted at 18°C potential, but real-time data confirmed no exceedance as temperatures dropped post-3 p.m. JST amid decreasing insolation. A late revision to JMA's daily summary or an overlooked microburst of heat could theoretically challenge this, though such adjustments are rare after peak hours; final report expected overnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 1?
17°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$264,259 Vol.
$264,259 Vol.
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$264,259 Vol.
$264,259 Vol.
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
Official Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—recorded a midday peak of 17°C today, aligning with trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. Cool northerly winds and partial cloud cover suppressed further warming, consistent with early April climatology where historical highs average around 18°C but vary with frontal passages. Model forecasts from yesterday had hinted at 18°C potential, but real-time data confirmed no exceedance as temperatures dropped post-3 p.m. JST amid decreasing insolation. A late revision to JMA's daily summary or an overlooked microburst of heat could theoretically challenge this, though such adjustments are rare after peak hours; final report expected overnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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