Market icon

ギニアビサウ大統領選挙

Market icon

ギニアビサウ大統領選挙

フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ 36.0%

シガ・バティスタ 11.7%

ウマロ・シッソコ・エンバロ 6.2%

ジョゼ・マリオ・ヴァズ 3.8%

Polymarket

$280,963 Vol.

フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ 36.0%

シガ・バティスタ 11.7%

ウマロ・シッソコ・エンバロ 6.2%

ジョゼ・マリオ・ヴァズ 3.8%

Polymarket

$280,963 Vol.

フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ

$32,346 Vol.

26%

シガ・バティスタ

$19,531 Vol.

7%

ウマロ・シッソコ・エンバロ

$83,013 Vol.

6%

ジョゼ・マリオ・ヴァズ

$20,366 Vol.

4%

ガブリエル・フェルナンド・インディ

$17,810 Vol.

4%

オノリオ・アウグスト・ロペス

$17,023 Vol.

3%

ジョアン・デ・デウス・メンデス

$15,506 Vol.

3%

バシロ・ジャ

$13,590 Vol.

3%

マリオ・ダ・シルヴァ・ジュニオール

$16,095 Vol.

3%

エルクラーノ・アルマンド・ベキンサ

$14,352 Vol.

3%

ママドゥ・イアイア・ジャロ

$17,220 Vol.

3%

ジョアン・ベルナルド・ヴィエイラ

$14,110 Vol.

3%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 26% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting leaked 2025 vote tallies showing his narrow lead over ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before the November 26 military coup annulled results and installed a transitional junta led by General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Dias, PSR party president and backed by the opposition PAI Terra Ranka alliance after fleeing to Nigerian asylum, holds an edge as the perceived legitimate 2025 frontrunner amid voter fatigue with instability. Siga Batista, a parliamentarian, trails at 7%, while Embaló sits at 6% due to his association with the disrupted poll. The wide-open field with no dominant incumbent could consolidate behind Dias via endorsements or ECOWAS pressure for transparency, though junta restrictions and coalition negotiations remain key uncertainties ahead of candidate filings.

Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 26% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting leaked 2025 vote tallies showing his narrow lead over ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before the November 26 military coup annulled results and installed a transitional junta led by General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Dias, PSR party president and backed by the opposition PAI Terra Ranka alliance after fleeing to Nigerian asylum, holds an edge as the perceived legitimate 2025 frontrunner amid voter fatigue with instability. Siga Batista, a parliamentarian, trails at 7%, while Embaló sits at 6% due to his association with the disrupted poll. The wide-open field with no dominant incumbent could consolidate behind Dias via endorsements or ECOWAS pressure for transparency, though junta restrictions and coalition negotiations remain key uncertainties ahead of candidate filings.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 26% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting leaked 2025 vote tallies showing his narrow lead over ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before the November 26 military coup annulled results and installed a transitional junta led by General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Dias, PSR party president and backed by the opposition PAI Terra Ranka alliance after fleeing to Nigerian asylum, holds an edge as the perceived legitimate 2025 frontrunner amid voter fatigue with instability. Siga Batista, a parliamentarian, trails at 7%, while Embaló sits at 6% due to his association with the disrupted poll. The wide-open field with no dominant incumbent could consolidate behind Dias via endorsements or ECOWAS pressure for transparency, though junta restrictions and coalition negotiations remain key uncertainties ahead of candidate filings.

Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 26% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting leaked 2025 vote tallies showing his narrow lead over ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before the November 26 military coup annulled results and installed a transitional junta led by General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Dias, PSR party president and backed by the opposition PAI Terra Ranka alliance after fleeing to Nigerian asylum, holds an edge as the perceived legitimate 2025 frontrunner amid voter fatigue with instability. Siga Batista, a parliamentarian, trails at 7%, while Embaló sits at 6% due to his association with the disrupted poll. The wide-open field with no dominant incumbent could consolidate behind Dias via endorsements or ECOWAS pressure for transparency, though junta restrictions and coalition negotiations remain key uncertainties ahead of candidate filings.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」はPolymarket上の12個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ」で26%、次いで「シガ・バティスタ」が7%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、26¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に26%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」は$281Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 6, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」で取引するには、このページに記載されている12個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」の現在のフロントランナーは「フェルナンド・ディアス・ダ・コスタ」で26%であり、市場がこの結果に26%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「シガ・バティスタ」で7%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ギニアビサウ大統領選挙」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。